There will be a few of both…
The below is from a get together of polling people…
The impending death of the telephone poll comes just as the 2020 presidential election is approaching — and without enough time for a tested and trusted alternative to replace it. That raises serious concerns about the reliability of polling results heading into the election, other survey researchers told POLITICO on the sidelines of their conference, with scrutiny of the industry set to be heavier than ever after President Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.
Fewer Americans than ever are willing to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters, sending costs skyrocketing to roughly double what they were four years ago. Despite enjoying a largely successful 2018 election, pollsters are furiously experimenting to fill the void left by the slow failure of the telephone poll, looking at everything from internet-based solutions to snail mail.
But the possibility of another polling miss in the 2020 presidential race looms, and the next election could present new, unforeseen challenges that polls may struggle to address as they test new methodologies under exacting scrutiny. Both parties are framing the race as an existential contest over the country’s future. Voter engagement is at record highs for this stage of the election cycle. And pollsters are already facing blame for recent election surprises in Israel and Australia.
Steve Koczela, who conducts phone polls in Massachusetts and New Hampshire for Boston’s NPR affiliate, described 2020 as a year “full of promise and peril” as the polling industry transitions from phones to something else.
“It doesn’t seem live phone polling is going away anytime soon, but its place as the clear gold standard is a thing of the past,” Koczela said….
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The eventual replacement for phone polling may not be any one method. It’s more likely to be a patchwork of solutions trying to keep up with the rapidly changing ways Americans communicate with one another…