I’ve wanted to write this in a post for a while…
So the Larry Sabato piece has helped me to do this…
For Democrats…
‘Super’ Tuesday Democratic Primary day is March 3rd, 2020…
On that day 12 states will vote for who will be the nominee that year for President….
There are only 4 states that vote before…
A few things have to be said….
Despite the media focus on small donations to campaigns now?
It’s gonna take ALL the money these people can get to survive until ‘Super Tuesday’…
16 states will need camping staffs and operations …
THAT will require HEAVY money…
The pope on the bottom tier going into the fall of THIS year simply won’t be viable candidates on January 1, 2020…
Iowa and New Hampshire will cancel out a good many I believe that hadn’t already realised they had no chance…
My feeling is this….
As in the past and with a new wrinkle?
If someone wins South Carolina and gets most of delegates in California?
They should be the nominee….
The winner in South Carolina will most likely take the Southern state’s…
This can only be done by winning the Southern Black vote…
So far?
Biden has this…
But Kamala Harris is trying hard to deny him….
While Bernie Sanders has visited the region…
There is NOT reason to believe he will do any better this time than the last…
Black Democrats voted overwhelming for Obama twice and went for Clinton, Hillary two years ago….Joe Biden is ahead in that state less than a year out from the next vote…
California should be the ‘Whole Magilla ‘…
It has 416 delegates….
Kamala Harris should have a advantage in her home state?
Nope…
Recent polling has Joe Biden ahead….
Hmmmm?
Folks?
Right now?
As I have been saying…
Joe Biden IS the leader…
He leads in the two states that this dog believes will be the bellwether ones for the nomination…
It is my belief that IF Biden runs?
Absent a Biden complete screw-up?
He will be the nominee….
But ?
We all got the Trump/Hillary thing wrong, didn’t we?
….from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.…
Table 1: Tentative schedule of Democratic nominating contests, early February through mid-March 2020
Sources: Schedule information comes courtesy of Frontloading HQ. Delegate counts are from Appendix B of the Call For the 2020 Democratic National Convention, issued by the Democratic Party of the United States and adopted on Aug. 25, 2018.
This is why we led this article with Yogi Berra quote — it gets late early this primary season, with 64% of the pledged delegates slated to be awarded by mid-March. That percentage is subject to change, but it could get even higher if, for instance, states like Colorado and Georgia, neither of which has officially set a date but very well could vote on Super Tuesday, opt to also schedule themselves early in the calendar. New York, as mentioned, is another important state that is not scheduled yet (it voted in April in 2016).
Note that while “Super Tuesday” is March 3, with many states voting including mega-states California and Texas, March 10 and March 17 are mini-Super Tuesdays, with big states Michigan and Ohio currently slated for the former date and Florida and Illinois, along with budding swing state Arizona, scheduled for the latter. About 60% of all the Democratic delegates will be awarded during this two-week stretch. While the February contests are important for setting up the battle to come and winnowing the field, the March contests are the ones with the big delegate prizes….