This new poll resulted in the following changes:
- Biden vs. Trump state category change: PA has moved from Weak Biden to Strong Biden [Chart]
- Trump best case vs. Biden has changed: Biden 230 to Trump 308 -> Biden 250 to Trump 288 [Chart]
I’m starting to feel like I keep repeating myself, but the story of the state level polls so far continues to be Biden doing better than other Democrats against Trump. The newest update is just the latest poll to move things in that direction.
Looking specifically at Biden, the “envelope” looks like this at the moment:
The upper side of that chart shows the optimistic side for Trump dropping from a 106 electoral vote win to only a 38 electoral win as more and more polls show Biden with more strength than the simple average of the last five elections would have predicted.
Looking at some of the other candidates as well, we see this trend is not universal at all….