There has been a cicil war going on within the Democratic party….
Progressives on the left vs mainstream Democrats….
Bernie Sanders, who isn’t a Democrat, ran against Hillary Clinton last time….
Now for 2020?….. Democratic left leaners Sanders and Warren are mounting up efforts to capture the Democratic Presidential nomination again…
Several states have moved from caucuses to primaries….
Mainstream Democrats like Biden will have an advantage in primaries…
Bernie Sanders’ surprise performance against Hillary Clinton in 2016 was fueled by his dominance in a slate of states that voted by caucus, a format that allowed the Vermont senator to capitalize on his smaller but more fervent base of supporters.
In 2020, Sanders will lose some of that edge.
Several states that caucused in 2016 will hold primaries instead in 2020, potentially dealing a blow to Sanders and other Democratic hopefuls with zealous followings.
“It’s absolutely going to make a difference in 2020,” said Robby Mook, Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager. “The caucuses tend to award the candidate who has the greatest intensity among a smaller group of supporters, rather than a candidate who has a broader base of support.”
Caucuses are seen as a boon for candidates with die-hard supporters because they can last for hours and require participants to vote out in the open. The beneficiaries are often candidates representing the ideological poles of each party, the most liberal Democrats or most conservative Republicans.
David de la Fuente, a political analyst for the centrist think tank Third Way, said the abandonment of caucuses is “going to have a big, big impact” and are “likely to benefit the most mainstream Democrats rather than more far-left or populist Democrats.”
Sanders’ allies aren’t buying that it will be hurt his chances if he runs for president again, though.
Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ 2016 campaign manager, said “the practical effect on a Bernie Sanders 2020 run is — I don’t think there is any.”
Weaver agrees with the premise that passionate voters can have an outsized effect in low-turnout caucuses: “If you have a dedicated group of folks, because the number of people at caucuses is generally lower, they can have a bigger impact.”
But there’s a flip side, he said: It’s easier to persuade infrequent voters to show up to a primary than a caucus — and “Bernie Sanders and other progressive candidates will disproportionately get the votes of people who are not consistent voters.”…..