Some of us continue to spread a warning….
Things ARE overextended….
Emerging signs of weakness in major economic sectors, including auto manufacturing, agriculture and home building, are prompting some forecasters to warn that one of the longest periods of economic growth in American history may be approaching the end of its run.
The economy has been a picture of health, expanding at a 3.5 percent annual pace during the third quarter and driving the unemployment rate to 3.7 percent, the lowest level in almost half a century. But General Motors’ plan to cut 14,000 jobs and shutter five factoriesreinforces other recent indications that the better part of the expansion is now in the rearview mirror.
“We’re in the 10th year of the expansion and there are some soft points,” said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, a former chief economist at Ford Motor Co. and the Commerce Department who is now on the faculty at the University of Michigan. “The auto sales cycle has peaked and the housing cycle also has peaked.”
Ms. Hughes-Cromwick said higher interest rates, combined with rising inflation and faltering corporate confidence, could set the stage for a recession. In that scenario, she said, “I don’t really see how the economy can keep powering ahead.”
The vast majority of prominent economic forecasters, including various arms of the federal government and all of the major Wall Street banks, still regard continued growth as the most likely outcome for the American economy in 2019. But there is a broad consensus that the pace of growth will slow as the sugar high provided by the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut and spending increases begins to wear off. And some forecasters see a small, but growing, chance of a recession.
President Trump’s chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, tried to play down such concerns on Tuesday, insisting that the overall health of the economy remained robust…..
Interest rates, inflation and unemployment are still very low.
In a classic economic cycle, they shouldn’t all be that low at the same time, but so far that’s been the case. What are high are the deficit and the national debt.
And (after the 1920’s and 1930’s), high tariffs and other barriers to free trade are seen by few economist of any stripe (radical, post-Marxist, liberal, moderate, conservative, classical liberal or libertarian) other than Larry Kudlow’s to be a good thing for mature economies.
This will only be aggravated by the likely outcome from Brexit — deal or no deal — on the UK, the EU, and outside partners.
And in spite of a flow of money towards prosperous corporations, families and individuals, productive investment is still quite low. Bidding up the price of things that can’t be increased, such as land or fine art, does very little to stimulate or stabilize the economy.
There’s also the disturbing possibility that we’re on the edge of some Alan Greenspan/Goldilocks bubble (simultaneous low inflation & high employment) that will some day burst under the strain, as it did in 2007-2009. Or the counter-possibility that, fearing a bursting bubble, the Fed and other central banks will raise interest rates and/or reduce the money-supply too fast, too much or too precipitously.
Naturally, I’d be interested to know what Zreebs and Corey, among others, think.
So would I …..
I believe Z actually came out of retirement back week ago to say close to what u just did…..
I am concerned Trump’s big government anti-trade policies will begin to hurt the economy. It already hurt Republicans politically.
Right now though, people think the economy is strong. It is not good for Trump or his party if people are opposed to them so much regardless. Politically, Democrats might want recession, etc, but that’s not exactly patriotic.
Republicans and Democrats both will need to come to terms that economics aside, large parts of the country find either party completely unacceptable and will vote accordingly. That means, both parties face a high risk of loss in 2020, especially Republicans, if Democrats can remotely get their act together.
Simply put, Republicans need to dump Trump or they will be destroyed as a party, either in 2020 or sometime thereafter.
The Republicans left over in Jan will owe their political survival even MORE to Trump I wound think….
Daniel used to complain about RINO’s after he switched parties
They are an exstict breed in the GOP….
So what u are looking for CG maybe hard to find,..
That said?
I am thinking that Trump WILL be primaries come 2020…..
If he is still in office?
He maybe so bruised and beat up civilly , legally and by his own mouth that his own party people jump ship on him….
The guy does bring trouble on bimself
Ye
Ultimately, what goes up always comes down, but in this case certain policies may make the coming down harder and faster…The last two Republican administrations have managed to run record deficits while shepherding a growing economy (which should mean increased tax revenues to pay off debt and decrease deficit) but they can’t even get that right which is one of their alleged principals. But as we have seen they have no principals anymore, they just follow Trump to whatever his drum beat is today…
I’ll add to your view BDog that absent Trump?
The Republicans fresh with control over Congress acted like a horse seeing the barn door open….
The tax cut is actually pure take from the poor and middle class and give to the rich Republicanism…so is the over spending for Defense
These policy moves have been their ‘principal’s’ all along…
But with no counter from Democrats and Yes?
A NYC Real Estate guy who ‘loves’ debt?
Things have been off the rails….
And to close this out of their House majority?
The knuckleheads have introduced a NEW TAX GIVEAWAY Bill!
If Z gets to see this we’d like his view again on the American economy and the GOPer’s