• Polls: Is there an election coming up soon?
- AZ-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R)for Fox News: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46, Martha McSally (R) 46 (early Oct.: 47-45 Sinema)
- AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R) for ABC15: McSally (R): 52, Sinema (D): 45 (early Oct.: 47-41 McSally)
- FL-Sen: Cygnal (R): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50, Rick Scott (R): 48
- FL-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47
- FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47 (Oct. 20-21: 49-48 Scott)
- FL-Sen: Trafalgar (R): Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47
- IN-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R)for Fox News: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 45, Mike Braun (R): 38, Lucy Brenton (L): 5 (early Oct.: 43-41-6 Donnelly)
- IN-Sen: Marist for NBC: Donnelly (D): 43, Braun (R): 40, Brenton (L): 9 (Aug.: 44-41-8 Donnelly)
- MO-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R)for Fox News: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 43, Josh Hawley (R): 43 (early Oct.: 43-43 tie)
- ND-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R)for Fox News: Kevin Cramer (R): 51, Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): 42 (early Oct.: 53-41 Cramer)
- OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 52, Jim Renacci (R): 42
- TN-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R)for Fox News: Marsha Blackburn (R): 50, Phil Bredesen (D): 41 (early Oct.: 48-43 Blackburn)
- TN-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Blackburn (R): 49, Bredesen (D): 45 (mid-Oct.: 44-43 Bredesen)
- WV-Sen: Research America for MetroNews: Joe Manchin (D-inc): 45, Patrick Morrisey (R): 40, Rusty Hollen (L): 11 (Aug.: 46-38 Manchin)
In Arizona, OH’s poll is the best for McSally since … OH’s last poll, a month ago. Otherwise, she’s never led by more than 2 points.
In Indiana, this pair of surveys are the most positive Donnelly’s seen in several weeks, though the Fox poll is probably far too rosy. The last time we saw Donnelly up was in a SurveyUSA poll in mid-October that had him ahead just 41-40.
It’s a similar story for McCaskill in Missouri. She hasn’t so much as found herself in a tie since Fox’s last poll, a month ago, and her last lead was shortly before that, a CNN poll that had her ahead 47-44. Otherwise, Hawley’s been leading for the last month.
The one Democrat who didn’t get any good news is Bredesen in Tennessee. The only pollster in a month to give him any kind of lead was SSRS, and now that’s gone.
Finally, the West Virginia result is one of the closest we’ve seen from an independent outfit, though the Libertarian’s vote share is weirdly high. Hollen’s best previous showing was 8, but in the few times he’s been included, he’s usually clocked in at 2 or 3. Also, this poll had a very long 12-day field period. That’s never great, but it’s especially problematic this close to an election, when many voters are only just now tuning in.
We also have an addendum to a recent item we wrote on Ipsos’ polls for Reuters and the University of Virginia. We had previously questioned why Ipsos’ polls included so few independents, but the firm explains that there wasn’t a “lack of independents in our polling; rather, they’re there, but we include independent leaners with the party that they lean toward. ” They explain their reasoning here.
| Friday, November 2 |
November 2
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Updated 8:10 PM….