Polling Updates….November 1, 2018

Polls: Almost there …

• AZ-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters and UVA: Martha McSally (R): 48, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46 (Sept.: 47-44 Sinema)
• AZ-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Sinema (D): 51, McSally (R): 47 (Sept.: 50-43 Sinema)
• CA-Sen: UC Berkeley: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 45, Kevin de Leon (D): 36
• CA-Sen: Probolsky Research (R): Feinstein (D-inc): 41, de Leon (D): 35 (Sept.: 37-29 Feinstein)
• FL-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters and UVA: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49, Rick Scott (R): 44 (Sept.: 46-45 Scott)
• ND-Sen: Trafalgar (R): Kevin Cramer (R): 49, Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): 39
• NJ-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Bob Menendez (D-inc): 43, Bob Hugin (R): 36 (early Oct.: 36-35 Menendez)
• NV-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Jacky Rosen (D): 48, Dean Heller (R-inc): 45 (early Oct.: 45-44 Heller)
• TN-Sen: Cygnal (R): Marsha Blackburn (R): 51, Phil Bredesen (D): 45
• TN-Sen: Marist for NBC: Blackburn (R): 51, Bredesen (D): 46 (Aug.: 48-46 Bredesen)
• TN-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Blackburn (R): 48, Bredesen (D): 41 (Sept.: 42-42 tie)
• TX-Sen: University of Texas at Tyler: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 47, Beto O’Rourke (D): 43
• WI-Sen: Marquette: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 54, Leah Vukmir (R): 43 (Sept.: 53-42 Baldwin)

One thing to note with Ipsos is that, once again, they’ve managed to sample an almost impossible small number of independents. We went into some detail recently as to why this could affect the accuracy of these polls….

Daily Kos….

November 1

				DATES	POLLSTER	SAMPLE		RESULT				NET RESULT
U.S. Senate	•	Fla.		OCT 30-31	B- St. Pete Polls	2,470	LV	Nelson	49%	47%	Scott	Nelson	+2
U.S. Senate	•	W.Va.		OCT 28-31	B+ Emerson College	1,013	LV	Manchin	47%	42%	Morrisey	Manchin	+6
U.S. Senate	•	Fla.		OCT 29-30	C Trafalgar Group	2,543	LV	Nelson	49%	47%	Scott	Nelson	+2
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.		OCT 28-30	B+ Emerson College	632	LV	Bredesen	44%	52%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+8
U.S. Senate	•	Texas		OCT 28-30	B+ Emerson College	781	LV	O’Rourke	47%	50%	Cruz	Cruz	+3
U.S. Senate	•	W.Va.		OCT 19-30	C+ Research America Inc.	400	LV	Manchin	45%	40%	Morrisey	Manchin	+5
U.S. Senate	•	N.M.		OCT 29	Carroll Strategies	1,200	LV	Heinrich	52%	37%	Rich	Heinrich	+15
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.		OCT 24-29	A- CNN/SSRS	764	LV	Bredesen	45%	49%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+4
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.		OCT 24-29	A- CNN/SSRS	871	RV	Bredesen	46%	47%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+1
U.S. Senate	•	Fla.		OCT 24-29	A- CNN/SSRS	781	LV	Nelson	49%	47%	Scott	Nelson	+2
U.S. Senate	•	Fla.		OCT 24-29	A- CNN/SSRS	887	RV	Nelson	46%	46%	Scott		EVEN
U.S. Senate	•	Pa.		OCT 22-28	B- Franklin & Marshall College	214	LV	Casey	50%	35%	Barletta	Casey	+15
U.S. Senate	•	Pa.		OCT 22-28	B- Franklin & Marshall College	537	RV	Casey	50%	31%	Barletta	Casey	+19

FiveThirtyEight….

Thursday, November 1

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Florida Senate – Scott vs. Nelson	CNN	Nelson 49, Scott 47	Nelson +2
Florida Senate – Scott vs. Nelson	St. Pete Polls	Nelson 49, Scott 47	Nelson +2
Florida Senate – Scott vs. Nelson	Trafalgar Group (R)	Nelson 49, Scott 47	Nelson +2
Arizona Senate – McSally vs. Sinema	ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights*	Sinema 45, McSally 52	McSally +7
West Virginia Senate – Morrisey vs. Manchin	MetroNews*	Manchin 45, Morrisey 40	Manchin +5
West Virginia Senate – Morrisey vs. Manchin	Emerson*	Manchin 47, Morrisey 42	Manchin +5
Tennessee Senate – Blackburn vs. Bredesen	CNN	Blackburn 49, Bredesen 45	Blackburn +4
Tennessee Senate – Blackburn vs. Bredesen	Emerson	Blackburn 52, Bredesen 44	Blackburn +8
Texas Senate – Cruz vs. O’Rourke	Emerson*	Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47	Cruz +3
Pennsylvania Senate – Barletta vs. Casey	Franklin & Marshall*	Casey 50, Barletta 35	Casey +15
Massachusetts Senate – Diehl vs. Warren	WBUR/MassINC*	Warren 54, Diehl 32	Warren +22
Florida Governor – DeSantis vs. Gillum	CNN	Gillum 49, DeSantis 48	Gillum +1
Florida Governor – DeSantis vs. Gillum	Trafalgar Group (R)	Gillum 48, DeSantis 46	Gillum +2
Colorado Governor – Stapleton vs. Polis	Magellan (R)*	Polis 45, Stapleton 40	Polis +5
Colorado Governor – Stapleton vs. Polis	OnSight/Keating (D)*	Polis 50, Stapleton 42	Polis +8
Tennessee Governor – Lee vs. Dean	CNN	Lee 52, Dean 42	Lee +10
Tennessee Governor – Lee vs. Dean	Emerson	Lee 54, Dean 41	Lee +13
Texas Governor – Abbott vs. Valdez	Emerson	Abbott 51, Valdez 43	Abbott +8
Pennsylvania Governor – Wagner vs. Wolf	Franklin & Marshall*	Wolf 59, Wagner 33	Wolf +26
Massachusetts Governor – Baker vs. Gonzalez	WBUR/MassINC	Baker 68, Gonzalez 25	Baker +43
New Jersey 7th District – Lance vs. Malinowski	NY Times/Siena	Malinowski 47, Lance 39	Malinowski +8
West Virginia 3rd District – Miller vs. Ojeda	Emerson	Miller 52, Ojeda 45	Miller +7
President Trump Job Approval	Harvard-Harris	Approve 44, Disapprove 56	Disapprove +12
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 49, Disapprove 50	Disapprove +1
President Trump Job Approval	NPR/PBS/Marist	Approve 41, Disapprove 53	Disapprove +12
2018 Generic Congressional Vote	NPR/PBS/Marist	Democrats 52, Republicans 43	Democrats +9
2018 Generic Congressional Vote	Harvard-Harris	Democrats 47, Republicans 38	Democrats +9
Direction of Country	Harvard-Harris	Right Direction 39, Wrong Track 53	Wrong Track +14

Real Clear Politics….