Daily Polling Updates…Midterm Election Eve…November 5, 2018

Comments

1. jamesb says

   November 5, 2018 at 9:42 am

   Mark Murray
   @mmurraypolitics

   NBC/Marist poll of Florida (likely voters)

   FL-GOV
   Gillum (D) 50%
   DeSantis (R) 46%
   (Was Gillum 48%-43% in Sept)

   FL-SEN
   Nelson (D) 50%
   Scott (R) 46%
   (Was Nelson 48%-45% in Sept)

   Trump approval: 44%

   Oct 30-Nov 2

   Dave Wasserman
   @Redistrict

   TX early vote running *almost* at ’16 pace, which is pretty incredible. Top counties so far: Dallas (93% of ’16 pace), Travis (91%) – two of the biggest bastions of Dem-trending whites.

   At the bottom: Hidalgo (77%), Cameron (81%), the two largest 80%+ Hispanic counties.

   Twitter

   • jamesb says

     November 5, 2018 at 9:59 am

     Cook moves more races to the Democrats in their final calls….

     In its final race ratings of the 2018 midterm election cycle, the Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats and one in favor of Republicans.

     “We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A “Red Exodus” is contributing to the potential “Blue Wave:” of Republicans’ 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.”

     “Just by winning all of the races at least “leaning” their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota’s 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult.”

     Politicalwire…

     • jamesb says

       November 5, 2018 at 1:25 pm

       Kyle Kondik
       @kkondik

       The picks are in – D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10(!) in governorships http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-picks-for-2018/ …

2. CG says

   November 5, 2018 at 11:13 pm

   Final predictions-

   Governor:

   24 D (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 5 Tossup)
   26 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 5 Tossup)

   Democrat net gain of 8
   Republican net loss of 7
   _________________________________________________
   U.S. Senate:

   47 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
   53 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

   Republican net gain of 2
   _________________________________________________
   U.S. House:

   225 D (158 Safe, 33 Likely, 15 Leans, 19 Tossup)
   210 R (97 Safe, 70 Likely, 26 Leans, 17 Tossup)

   Democrat net gain of 30

   • jamesb says

     November 5, 2018 at 11:32 pm

     Thanks CG….

     My forecast is close to yours….

     Tomorrow seems to be looking like a pushback against Trump and Republican agenda….