And so the stepping down of current Senator Jeff Flake, who constantly tangled with Donald Trump has given the Democrat’s a US Senate seat in Arizona….
This win will limit the Republicans gain in next years Senate to only few Senator’s beyond what they currently have….
This IS a significant loss for Republicans…
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has made history by becoming the first woman elected to represent Arizona in the Senate. She defeated Republican Rep. Martha McSally after several days of ballot counting.
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Sinema led McSally 50 percent to 48 percent when The Associated Press called the race six days after Election Day.
Sinema’s victory also marks the first time in 30 years that a Democrat has won a Senate seat in Arizona.
The race’s results were unknown for several days due to roughly 500,000 votes, mostly from Maricopa County, that still had to be counted after Election Day.
Arizona Secretary of State Michele Regan explained in a statement that vote tabulation can take days due to security measures and the high volume of early vote ballots dropped off at polling places on Election Day. Officials must verify someone who turned in an early ballot on Election Day did not also mistakenly vote in person at the polling place.
Sinema’s historic win could appear surprising in a state where women had early success running for statewide office. But long-serving male senators kept Senate seats elusive, until the two women faced off this year to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake….
image….AZCentral.Com
Ha ha! And CG thought she was a sure loser who Democrats would have swapped out if they could due to her anti Iraq war stands in 2005.
Don’t forget those “terrible” radio interviews she gave and the anti-war pink tutu – and she’s bisexual (read lesbian). The United States looks like America, the Republican Party looks like old overweight white people at the Saturday night Country Club dance.
He was WRONG, eh?
Democrats do NOT get the majority….
But GOPer’s only inch out Senate wins….
The Blue wave cools the ‘expected’ Red Wave down to a ripple….
I said the race was a “Tossup.” That’s very different from “sure loser.”
The polling clearly showed a move to Siemna in the last week….
Only a few right leaning polls showed otherwise….
All in all?
Pundits and this dog did pretty good on the OVERALL numbers…
It does look like it will 40 or so Dem House gains…
Nobody’s predictions wound up better than mine. Nobody’s. As this comment section winds down, it’s important for me to take a final bow…
I believe my call was +35 – 40 Dem House
+ 2 – 3 GOP Senate….
Please restate your CG if you remember…
I predicted every race.
Governor, the only one I would be wrong on is FL
Senate, only Florida and Arizona, so that means I got the exact margin.
House, I said Democrats plus 36 based on race by race , but said it would probably be slightly higher.
I’ll be able to tell once they call all the House races (and to be fair with the Senate runoff in MS) what my final results were.
Correction-
Race by race, I had it plus 30 in the House, but stated that I expected the pickup to be close to 40.
Props to You for your call on EVERY race….
I Thank You CG for posting those here….
But I think I actually aced ya on the House and Senate?
If you didn’t predict every race, you did no such thing.
I’m sure you think you could outplay Eli Manning at this point too. I wouldn’t bet on it.
House and Senate OVERAL Total….
I did NOT predict individual races…Nope…
That is hurtful bringing up Eli Manning….
He, he, he….
Right now the score is tied against SF 49er’s
Anybody can guess on a number.
But MY call was pretty damn good…..
The final polling in Arizona continued to show a dead heat, which is basically how the race ended up.
The early voting stats, which seemed to favor Republicans, led many to believe that McSally would be a slight favorite.
Clearly, a bunch of Republicans did not vote for McSally. Some may be the pro-Kelli Ward “deadenders” who were bitter over the primary, and even more were those who were turned off by how much she had embraced Trump during the primary.
It’s too bad the Trump Cult of Personality Party had to turn Jeff Flake into a leper because he would have kept that seat. As it turns out, he was right about where the seat was headed.
What is believed to happen now is that Jon Kyl is not going to stay beyond the end of the year. Governor Ducey (who won big), is probably going to appoint McSally to the Senate, and she will be the senior Senator next year and will have incumbency going into a 2020 race. She may need it and hopefully, she will have her eyes more open about Trump the next time.
My mother called me outraged over some result on “Dancing With the Stars.” She is more furious than any supporter of any losing candidate in America might have been last week.
No one likes their mom calling ya mad about ANYTHING!
11/5….4 polls with McSally ahead…2 Sinema ahead
11/4….2 polls with Sinema ahead
11/3….None
11/2….1 poll Sinema…2 McSally….
In the last couple of days McSally’s lead was down to +1
U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl was hesitant to say this week whether he will continue to serve in the Senate past the end of the year.
Kyl, R-Arizona, returned to the Senate in September, following the death of long-serving U.S. Sen. John McCain, who died Aug. 25 after a 13-month battle with brain cancer.
In appointing Kyl to the seat, Gov. Doug Ducey cited his previous 18 years of experience in the chamber and deep knowledge of national issues.
Kyl agreed to serve at least through the end of the year, although the governor said he hoped Kyl would seriously consider serving until a special election is held in 2020 to fill the rest of McCain’s term, which ends in 2022.
Kyl on Wednesday appeared non-committal about a future in the Senate during an interview with The Arizona Republic after a tour of Phoenix food bank with U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Rep. Martha McSally, a Senate hopeful….
More…
So, as I understand it, the current state of play is:
GOP gains N. Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp), Missouri (Claire McCaskill) & Indiana (Joe Donnelly) from the Democrats. (3)
Democrats gain Nevada (Jeff Flake) and Arizona (open-Jeff Flake) from the Republicans. (2)
So, far a net of one GOP gain.
Which leaves the final outcome to a Democratic seat in Florida (Bill Nelson) still being recounted, and a run-off for a Republican seat in Mississippi (Cindy Hyde-White, appointed to succeed Jeff Sessions).
It’s quite unlikely but possible for Rep. Mike Espy to take Mississippi for the Democrats. But the Democrats could keep their net loss to -1 if Bill Nelson wins the recount.
So (assuming that Sen. Hyde-White stays), the GOP net gain could be kept to +1 or increased to +2, depending on the result in Florida (GOP gain ND, Mo, Ind & maybe Fla, but lose Nev. & Ariz.)
That would make the Senate of the 116th Congress break down at either 52 R – 48 D & allies, or 53 R – 47 D & allies (not counting the Vice President’s casting vote). compared to 51-49 today (after Doug Jones took Alabama for the Democrats earlier this year) or 52-48 last year.
I’m doubtful for Nelson in Florida….
Recounts seldom result in changes….
But I hope I’m wrong….
Espy does have a steep hill to climb….
We’re talking about Miss ….
My call was GOP plus 2 or 3….
Miracles DO happen Once in a while though…
Correction: Of course, that Nevada Senate seat is now held by Dean Heller (beaten by Jackie Rosen), not Jeff Flake.
Another correction (how much I forget and confuse when sleepy):
Alabama’s seat (as I subconsciously half-suspected) was Jeff Sessions’ before he became Atty-Gen. of the U.S., and then that of Luther Strange (a Republican appointed by the Governor). Sen. Strange lost the GOP primary to ex-Judge Roy Moore, as Donald Trump flip-flopped, and Moore lost to Doug Jones (D).
Cindy Hyde-Smith was a Republican appointed to succeed Mississippi U.S,. Sen. Roger Wicker (R), who retired early.
So (combining all my corrections) the seats that changed, or that may change, hands between the parties this year are:
Republican
Alabama (Luther Strange, succeeding Jeff Sessions) → Doug Jones (D)
Mississippi (Cindy Hyde-Smith, succeeding Roger Wicker) — ¿ could be won by Rep. Mike Espy (D) ?
Nevada (Jeff Flake) → Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)
Arizona (Jeff Flake, retiring) → Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeating Rep. Martha McSally (R)
Democratic
North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) → Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill) → Josh Hawley (R)
Indiana (Joe Donnelly) → Mike Braun (R)
Florida (Bill Nelson) — may be lost to Gov. Rick Scott (R)
Sorry DSD, it wasn’t Wicker who retired (he was reelected last week) but Hyde-Smith was appointed to succeed Thad Cochran.
Of course (although I don’t want to swell any heads, as mine shrinks proportionately), you’re right, CG.
If this were real journalism, I honestly hope I’d be more attentive to detail (as the AP slogan goes, get it first, but get it right.)
I wouldn’t try to revoke your press pass.
He, he, he……
If you revoked it, then who¦d be around to ask all those disgraceful questions and spread all that Fake News?
Freedom of the Press/Media and Social Media!
Yeah I also heard that Kyl will quit at the end of the year and Ducey will appoint McSally. Not sure how that will go over if voters perceive it as the loser getting a consolatiin prize.
McSally was very gracious in defeat though so she will likely earn some goodwill for that in a 2020 race whether she is appointed to the seat before then or nor.
We’ll see…
He would be doing his party a favor leaving….
Update…
Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA) has become the latest California Republican to lose his seat, Politico reports.
“The Associated Press on Tuesday night declared Josh Harder the winner in the race in California’s 10th District in the state’s Central Valley east of San Jose. Harder, a former venture capitalist, had a lead of approximately 4,900 votes when the race was called.”
Politicalwire…
“After clinging for a week to a slim lead in her run for reelection, Republican Rep. Mimi Walters fell 261 votes behind her Democratic challenger, Katie Porter, as Orange County’s latest ballot count Tuesday underscored the increasingly bleak fortune of the California GOP,” the Los Angeles Times reports….
Politicalwire…