CBS News does a few computer runs based on low turnout (Usually) and high turnout….
As expected?
The Higher the turnout?
The Better Democrats do….
Democrats’ position in the contest for the House of Representatives is the best it’s been since June, but they remain dependent on turnout of less frequent voters, as well as winning over Trump voters from 2016.
If the elections were held today, Democrats would stand to win 226 seats (more than the 218 needed for a majority) with Republicans winning the remaining 209. The margin of error on each of these estimates is plus or minus 14 seats, which means that there’s still the prospect of Republicans retaining control. This range of possible outcomes in the model is wider than it was this summer. Many key races are extremely close, and it wouldn’t take much movement from where things stand now to swing many seats in either direction.
Based on what we’ve learned from interviewing many different types of voters across the country, we ran two additional models using scenarios in which turnout ends up higher or lower than the model currently suggests, along with small shifts in key voting groups. The higher turnout scenario, in which low-propensity voters who tell us they are going to vote Democratic this year follow through and vote, sees Democrats winning 235 seats. In the lower turnout scenario, new midterm voters stay home and the electorate profiles like it has in recent midterms. The Republicans win 218 seats under these conditions, narrowly retaining their majority, but without any seats to spare.
