Daily Polling Updates….Tons of Polls!…Oct. 30, 2018….

This is a VERY GOOD polling day for Democrats, especially for US Senate races….

Tuesday, October 30

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Florida Senate – Scott vs. Nelson	UNF	Nelson 47, Scott 46	Nelson +1
Ohio Senate – Renacci vs. Brown	Emerson	Brown 49, Renacci 43	Brown +6
Arizona Senate – McSally vs. Sinema	NBC News/Marist	Sinema 50, McSally 44	Sinema +6
Montana Senate – Rosendale vs. Tester	Gravis	Tester 48, Rosendale 45	Tester +3
Connecticut Senate – Corey vs. Murphy	Quinnipiac	Murphy 56, Corey 41	Murphy +15
Florida Governor – DeSantis vs. Gillum	UNF	Gillum 49, DeSantis 43	Gillum +6
Ohio Governor – DeWine vs. Cordray	Emerson	Cordray 49, DeWine 46	Cordray +3
Arizona Governor – Ducey vs. Garcia	NBC News/Marist	Ducey 55, Garcia 42	Ducey +13
Connecticut Governor – Stefanowski vs. Lamont	Quinnipiac	Lamont 47, Stefanowski 43	Lamont +4
Oregon Governor – Buehler vs. Brown	Emerson	Brown 47, Buehler 42	Brown +5
Kansas Governor – Kobach vs. Kelly vs. Orman	Emerson	Kobach 44, Kelly 43, Orman 8	Kobach +1
California Governor – Cox vs. Newsom	Gravis	Newsom 55, Cox 35	Newsom +20
California 50th District – Hunter vs. Campa-Najjar	KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA	Hunter 48, Campa-Najjar 45	Hunter +3
Kansas 2nd District – Watkins vs. Davis	Emerson	Watkins 48, Davis 41	Watkins +7
Kansas 3rd District – Yoder vs. Davids	Emerson	Davids 55, Yoder 43	Davids +12
Montana At-Large District – Gianforte vs. Williams	Gravis	Gianforte 48, Williams 48	Tie
North Carolina 2nd District – Holding vs. Coleman	Civitas (R)/SurveyUSA*	Holding 49, Coleman 40	Holding +9
Pennsylvania 1st District – Fitzpatrick vs. Wallace	NY Times/Siena	Fitzpatrick 47, Wallace 46	Fitzpatrick +1
Pennsylvania 10th District – Perry vs. Scott	Susquehanna	Perry 49, Scott 46	Perry +3
New York 19th District – Faso vs. Delgado	Monmouth*	Faso 44, Delgado 49	Delgado +5
Utah 4th District – Love vs. McAdams	KUTV/Dixie Strategies	McAdams 50, Love 43	McAdams +7
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 48, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +3

Real Clear Politics…

• Polls: Today’s Senate polls:

AZ-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 47, Martha McSally (R): 44 (Early Oct.: 47-44 Sinema)

FL-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Bill Nelson (D-Inc): 48, Rick Scott (R): 44

FL-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Nelson (D-inc): 46, Scott (R): 46 (June: 46-41 Scott)

IN-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Mike Braun (R): 46, Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 43

MI-Sen: Mitchell Communications for MIRS: Debbie Stabenow (D-Inc): 52, John James (R): 46 (Early Oct.: 51-42 Stabenow)

MO-Sen: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Josh Hawley (R): 49, Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (Mid Oct.: 47-46 Hawley)

TX-Sen: Quinnipiac: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 51, Beto O’Rourke (D): 46 (mid-Oct.: 54-45 Cruz)

YouGov gives us an infrequent Indiana poll, and it has bad news for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly as he trails by 46-43. Including this survey, the Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Republican Mike Braun a similar 44-42 lead.

Mitchell’s Michigan poll finds Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow up by only a modest 52-46, but that margin beggars belief given that neither party is behaving like this race is remotely competitive.

• Senate: The polling gods giveth and they taketh away: This week’s installment of the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast finds Montana Democrat Jon Tester moving toward a high-single-digits lead in the polling averages, but also finds a fellow incumbent, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, under water for the first time…

Daily Kos…

Oct 30

			DATES	POLLSTER	SAMPLE		RESULT				NET RESULT
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.	OCT 27-29	Vox Populi Polling	780	LV	Bredesen	47%	53%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+6
U.S. Senate		Ohio	OCT 26-28	B+ Emerson College	566	LV	Brown	49%	43%	Renacci	Brown	+6
U.S. Senate		Fla.	OCT 25-28	B+ Suffolk University	500	LV	Nelson	45%	43%	Scott	Nelson	+2
U.S. Senate		Conn.	OCT 22-28	A- Quinnipiac University	1,201	LV	Murphy	56%	41%	Corey	Murphy	+15
U.S. Senate	•	Mo.	OCT 26-27	Cygnal	501	LV	McCaskill	46%	49%	Hawley	Hawley	+3
U.S. Senate	•	Ind.	OCT 26-27	Cygnal	505	LV	Donnelly	46%	49%	Braun	Braun	+3
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	764	RV	Bredesen	46%	49%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+3
U.S. Senate	•	Tenn.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	471	LV	Bredesen	46%	51%	Blackburn	Blackburn	+5
U.S. Senate	•	Neb.	OCT 23-27	B- DFM Research*	683	LV	Raybould	39%	54%	Fischer	Fischer	+15
U.S. Senate		Ariz.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	793	RV	Sinema	45%	43%	McSally	Sinema	+2
U.S. Senate		Ariz.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	506	LV	Sinema	47%	44%	McSally	Sinema	+3
U.S. Senate		Ariz.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	793	RV	Sinema	49%	43%	McSally	Sinema	+6
U.S. Senate		Ariz.	OCT 23-27	A Marist College	506	LV	Sinema	50%	44%	McSally	Sinema	+6
U.S. Senate		Ohio	OCT 19-27	Baldwin Wallace University	1,051	LV	Brown	51%	32%	Renacci	Brown	+20
U.S. Senate	•	Texas	OCT 25-26	B- Dixie Strategies	588	LV	O’Rourke	42%	52%	Cruz	Cruz	+10
U.S. Senate		Mont.	OCT 24-26	C+ Gravis Marketing	782	LV	Tester	48%	45%	Rosendale	Tester	+3
U.S. Senate		Fla.	OCT 23-26	A- University of North Florida	1,051	LV	Nelson	47%	46%	Scott	Nelson	+1
U.S. Senate		N.D.	OCT 23-24	C Trafalgar Group	1,498	LV	Heitkamp	46%	55%	Cramer	Cramer	+9
U.S. Senate		R.I.	OCT 20-24	B+ Fleming & Associates	416	LV	Whitehouse	55%	36%	Flanders	Whitehouse	+19

FiveThirtyEight

This list has been updated @ 11:25PM..

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Daily Polling Updates….Tons of Polls!…Oct. 30, 2018….

Oct 30

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