| Thursday, October 4 |
What’s a bit weird about those Fox News polls is that they talk a lot about the GOP closing the enthusiasm gap… but on average they don’t show any difference between likely voter and registered voter results, whereas last month they had the GOP gaining slightly in the LV polls.
Twitter…
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales has two dozen House race ratings shifts — and they’re all positive for Democrats. Nearly one month from Election Day, Gonzales discusses how it’s more a question of Democratic prospects being good or great in the House than anything else….
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Sabato Crystal Ball…..
Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain…
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— We have 11 House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats.
— Five gubernatorial ratings changes go in different directions but are generally better for Democrats.
— Only one change in the Senate as the battle for that chamber remains in something of a stasis.
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California House loses for Republicans…
….The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats’ chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House.
But if the tide ebbs only slightly, the GOP could emerge with much of its control intact.
With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away, none of the Republicans in the state’s six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows.
Reaction to President Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates.
“Trump appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts,” said Mark DiCamillo, the veteran pollster who directs the Berkeley IGS Poll. “He’s the central figure.”
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Only the RealDonaldJTrump could brag about getting a stratospheric approval rating of 50% (that’s fifty percent) in a Rasmussen Poll.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump
So vastly more impressive than George H.W. Bush’s 90% at the conclusion of Operation Desert Storm (and even GHWB lost his re-election).
Utah U.S. Senate
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/utah-us-senate-race-of-day.html