| Monday, October 29 |
• Polls:
- MT-Sen: University of Montana: Jon Tester (D-inc): 49, Matt Rosendale (R): 39 (Aug.: 56-32 Tester)
- NM-Sen: Pacific Market Research for KRQE: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 40, Mick Rich (R): 28, Gary Johnson (L): 22
- TX-Sen: YouGov for the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 51, Beto O’Rourke (D): 45 (early Oct.: 50-44 Cruz)
Frustratingly, this is only the second October poll we’ve seen from Montana; a Montana State University-Billings poll finished about two weeks ago gave Tester a similar 47-38 edge. Those both feel too good to be true, especially since the last University of Montana survey gave Tester a gaudy 56-32 lead back in August.
YouGov’s October poll was for CBS. Their last survey for UT and the Texas Tribune was done in June, and it gave Cruz a 41-36 lead…..
FiveThirtyEight has the same pols as Real Clear ….
Selling a closer Texas Senate vote?
GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s lead over Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in the closely watched Texas Senate race has shrunk to 5 percentage points in a new poll.
Cruz is leading O’Rourke among likely voters, 51 to 46 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll released Monday, with 3 percent of voters remaining undecided.
The narrow lead marks a tightening in the Senate race from an Oct. 11 Quinnipiac poll, which found Cruz leading O’Rourke by a 9-point margin, 54 to 45 percent….
More…
U.S. House Predictions- North Carolina- Ohio
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-house-predictions-north-carolina-ohio.html
Kristen Sinema moves to a 6 pt lead over Martha McSally in Arizona.
So much for CG’s prediction a couple weeks ago that her anti- war comments from 2004 would doom her.
McSally is getting killed on health care–and her stupid comment that what voters really want to hear about is the Caravan.
Another Trump Republican lays down with the toadstool and gets warts.
It wasn’t about her making anti-war comments in 2004. It was about saying it was ok for Americans to fight with the Taliban against Americans in 2001 or 2002. McSally handled the matter poorly and tied herself too close to Trump in this race. I think it’s far from over though. Would still consider it a tossup with a slight edge to McSally. I will see if anything happens to change my mind in the next few days.
A LOT of polls out today showing a move away from McSally….
Sometimes stuff kinda blows up in your face….
McCaskill voted AGAINST Kavamnaugh though….
Yes looking like Sinema will get a ‘W”….
Looks like Tester also is gonna hold on…
Nelson a little bumpy….