Daily Polling Updates…..Oct. 19, 2018

Friday, October 19

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
New Hampshire Governor – Sununu vs. Kelly	UNH*	Sununu 50, Kelly 39	Sununu +11
Michigan 11th District – Epstein vs. Stevens	Target-Insyght/MIRS	Stevens 48, Epstein 48	Tie
Michigan 8th District – Bishop vs. Slotkin	Target-Insyght/MIRS	Bishop 48, Slotkin 45	Bishop +3
West Virginia 3rd District – Miller vs. Ojeda	NY Times/Siena	Miller 46, Ojeda 41	Miller +5
Maine 2nd District – Poliquin vs. Golden	NY Times/Siena	Poliquin 41, Golden 41	Tie
Texas 23rd District – Hurd vs. Ortiz Jones	NY Times/Siena	Hurd 53, Ortiz Jones 38	Hurd +15
New Jersey 11th District – Webber vs. Sherrill	NY Times/Siena	Sherrill 49, Webber 38	Sherrill +11
Pennsylvania 7th District – Nothstein vs. Wild	Morning Call*	Wild 48, Nothstein 41	Wild +7
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 47, Disapprove 52	Disapprove +5

More polls were added late in the evening …

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Maine Senate – Brakey vs. King	Pan Atlantic*	King 57, Brakey 30	King +27
Maine Governor – Moody vs. Mills	Pan Atlantic*	Mills 44, Moody 36	Mills +8
New Hampshire Governor – Sununu vs. Kelly	UNH*	Sununu 50, Kelly 39	Sununu +11

Real Clear Politics…

• IN-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 44, Mike Braun (R): 36
• NJ-Sen: Monmouth: Bob Menendez (D-inc): 49, Bob Hugin (R): 40 (April: 53-32 Menendez)
• NJ-Sen: National Research (R) for Bob Hugin: Menendez (D-inc): 42, Hugin (R): 40
• NV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Jacky Rosen (D): 44, Dean Heller (R-inc): 44
• TN-Sen: SSRS for Vanderbilt University: Phil Bredesen (D): 44, Marsha Blackburn (R): 43 (Sept.: 50-45 Bredesen)
• WV-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Joe Manchin (D-inc): 45, Patrick Morrissey (R) 40

Normally, Daily Kos Elections cites poll numbers that include both respondents who definitively pick a candidate and those who say they’re leaning one way or the other, but we had to do something different in the case of Vox Populi. The firm allows respondents to say they support or lean towards one candidate, but it doesn’t allow them to say they were undecided.

As we wrote in our post explaining how Daily Kos Elections reports and analyzes polls, we require any poll featured in the Digest to include voters who indicate that they’re undecided. If a pollster does not allow voters to say they’re still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, they’re leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race—and not adhering to best practices. However, rather than exclude Vox Populi from the Digest, we’ve decided that it’s better to treat the respondents who, when forced to make as choice, say they’re “leaning” towards a particular candidate as undecided voters….

Daily Kos…

				DATES	POLLSTER	SAMPLE		RESULT				NET RESULT
U.S. Senate	•	Ariz.		OCT 16-17	Data Orbital	600	LV	Sinema	48%	40%	McSally	Sinema	+8
U.S. Senate	•	Ariz.		OCT 16-17	Data Orbital	600	LV	Sinema	47%	41%	McSally	Sinema	+5
U.S. Senate	•	Nev.		OCT 15-16	B Public Policy Polling*	648	V	Rosen	48%	46%	Heller	Rosen	+2
U.S. Senate	•	Maine		OCT 8-16	C Critical Insights*	600	LV	King	41%	27%	Brakey	King	+14