Did Taylor Swift help Phil Bredesen in Tennessee?
| Thursday, October 18 |
| Race/Topic (Click to Sort) | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Senate – Blackburn vs. Bredesen | Vanderbilt University | Blackburn 43, Bredesen 44 | Bredesen +1 |
| New Jersey Senate – Hugin vs. Menendez | Monmouth | Menendez 49, Hugin 40 | Menendez +9 |
| New York Senate – Farley vs. Gillibrand | Quinnipiac | Gillibrand 58, Farley 33 | Gillibrand +25 |
| Tennessee Governor – Lee vs. Dean | Vanderbilt University | Lee 48, Dean 37 | Lee +11 |
| New York Governor – Molinaro vs. Cuomo | Quinnipiac | Cuomo 58, Molinaro 35 | Cuomo +23 |
| Kansas 3rd District – Yoder vs. Davids | NY Times/Siena | Davids 48, Yoder 39 | Davids +9 |
| Colorado 6th District – Coffman vs. Crow | NY Times/Siena | Crow 47, Coffman 38 | Crow +9 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 47, Disapprove 52 | Disapprove +5 |
- CA-Sen: 1st Tuesday Campaigns: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 43, Kevin de Leon (D): 30
- CA-Sen: SurveyUSA for local media: Feinstein (D-inc): 40, de Leon (D): 26 (June: 46-24 Feinstein)
- FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Rick Scott (R): 49, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (Sept.: 47-47 tie)
- NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac: Bob Menendez (D-inc): 51, Bob Hugin (R): 44 (Early Oct.: 53-42 Menendez)
- TN-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters and the University of Virginia: Marsha Blackburn (R): 47, Phil Bredesen (D): 44
This is the first poll we’ve seen from Florida since Hurricane Michael hit the Panhandle last week. Florida Politics says that “respondents in portions of the Panhandle, specifically the Panama City media market, where Michael delivered his lethal blow, are under-sampled,” and that “a slight plurality of these voters typically supports Republican candidates.”
Ipsos’ survey finds far better results for Bredesen than other recent independent polls, though it still has him trailing….
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The RCP average net disapproval of the President’s job performance is now – 7.7 % (44.1 % to 51.8 %)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
With so many close races in the ever-changing 2018 landscape, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales has one big question: how long after Election Day will the nation have to wait before knowing which party will control Congress? Watch the video for Gonzales’ analysis, plus a debrief on a handful of ratings changes less than three weeks out, which are listed in full below.
Senate
New Jersey from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
House
Arizona’s 2nd District from Tilt D to Lean D
Illinois’s 14th from Solid Republican to Lean Republican
Michigan’s 11th from Toss-up to Tilt D
Nevada’s 4th from Likely D to Lean D
Ohio’s 12th from Tilt R to Toss-up
Texas’s 23rd from Tilt R to Lean R
Governor
Arizona from Lean R to Likely R
Illinois from Lean D to Likely D
Michigan from Tilt D to Lean D
Minnesota from Lean D to Likely D
South Dakota from Likely R to Lean R
Nathan L. Gonzales
@nathanlgonzales
— Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens. The needed 23-seat net gain is not that far beyond that and there are many different paths Democrats can take to achieve it. So the GOP is still at a disadvantage overall.
— There are 11 ratings changes this week, seven in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans.
— Note: With the election so close, and with the Crystal Ball planning to eventually offer a projection in every general election House, Senate, and gubernatorial race (as per our tradition), we are working to reduce the number of Toss-ups in our ratings, not add to them….
Sabato Crystal Ball..
Trump tweeting that Republicans won’t go after coverage of preexusting conditions shows you the party is getting killed on this issue.
The Kavanaugh base bump is fading and if the discussion now turns to who is going to protect your health care? Nor a good place for Republicans to be 19 days from the election.
I WAS sure that Menendez would be ok….
U.S. House Predictions- Alabama- Arkansas
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-house-predictions-alabama-arkansas.html