Take Menendez off the endangered list…
|Wednesday, October 17|
- MO-Sen: The Polling Company (R) for Citizens United: Josh Hawley (R): 50, Claire McCaskill (D-Inc): 47
- TX-Sen: Tulchin Research (D) for MoveOn: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 49, Beto O’Rourke (D): 45
- TX-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Cruz (R-inc): 52, O’Rourke (D): 45
- WV-Sen: The Polling Company (R) for Citizens United: Joe Manchin (D-Inc): 49, Patrick Morrissey (R): 45
Both surveys for The Polling Company (Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway’s old firm) for the conservative group Citizens United (yes, the Citizens United) are, in fact, a little better for Democrats than the last GOP polls we’d seen. An early October poll for the conservative group Missouri Rising had Hawley up 52-44, while an NRSC survey of West Virginia from last week had Manchin up just 41-40…
Two new polls from Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics show close races in two high-profile, open-seat Southern contests: the Tennessee Senate race and Georgia gubernatorial race.
In Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7) leads former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) 47%-44%. Earlier in the campaign, this poll might have been taken as a good sign for Blackburn, who was generally trailing Bredesen. However, the three most recent public polls have shown her with larger leads: 14 points in a New York Times/Siena College poll, eight points in CBS News/YouGov survey, and five points in a Fox News poll. So, compared to other recent polls, it’s actually a better finding for Bredesen.
This poll does perhaps suggest that Blackburn may have slightly more room to grow than Bredesen: just 2% of self-identified Democratic likely voters said that they didn’t know who they would support or refused to say, while 6% of self-identified Republicans said the same. Bredesen does better among Democrats (a 92%-3% lead) than Blackburn does with Republicans (86%-7% lead), and he also has a giant lead among self-described independents (59%-21%), yet he still is not leading because of Tennessee’s very Republican electorate. The Crystal Ball rates the Tennessee Senate race Leans Republican.
In Georgia, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) are effectively tied, with Kemp at 47% and Abrams at 46%. Potentially looming large in this race is the presence of a Libertarian candidate, Ted Metz, who was a named option in this poll and attracted 2% support. But even that tiny percentage could be enough to throw the Georgia governor’s race into a Dec. 4 runoff because it could deprive either major party candidate of the majority support required to win outright on Election Day. The Crystal Ball rates the Georgia contest as Toss-up/Leans Runoff, reflecting the possibility of the election going to overtime. This finding of an effectively tied race generally reflects other recent surveys….
A new Gallup poll finds that 61% of Americans favor stricter laws on the sale of firearms, down modestly from March, when 67% said this shortly after the Parkland, Florida, school shooting on February 14…