| Tuesday, October 16 |
| Race/Topic (Click to Sort) | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Senate – Hutchison vs. Cantwell | Elway Poll | Cantwell 53, Hutchison 39 | Cantwell +14 |
| Oregon Governor – Buehler vs. Brown | OPB/DHM Research* | Brown 40, Buehler 35 | Brown +5 |
| New Jersey 3rd District – MacArthur vs. Kim | Stockton University | MacArthur 47, Kim 45 | MacArthur +2 |
| Florida 26th District – Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell | Mason-Dixon | Curbelo 46, Mucarsel-Powell 45 | Curbelo +1 |
| Utah 4th District – Love vs. McAdams | Salt Lake Tribune | Love 46, McAdams 46 | Tie |
| West Virginia 3rd District – Miller vs. Ojeda | Monmouth | Miller 48, Ojeda 45 | Miller +3 |
| New York 27th District – Collins vs. McMurray | Siena | Collins 46, McMurray 43 | Collins +3 |
| President Trump Job Approval | CNBC | Approve 41, Disapprove 49 | Disapprove +8 |
| 2018 Generic Congressional Vote | CNBC | Democrats 42, Republicans 36 | Democrats +6 |
- MN-Sen-B: Change Research (D): Tina Smith (D-Inc): 46, Karin Housley (R): 43
- TN-Sen: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Phil Bredesen: Marsha Blackburn (R): 48, Phil Bredesen (D): 47 (Sept: 47-45 Bredesen)
- TX-Sen: WPA Intelligence (R) for the Club for Growth: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 52, Beto O’Rourke (D): 43
- WI-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect Our Care: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 52, Leah Vukmir (R): 43
Unusually, Bredesen’s polling from Garin-Hart-Yang is an average of two polls taken Oct. 3-6 and 8-11 that weren’t released separately, and the numbers are the best he’s seen in weeks. However, the result comes on the heels of Siena’s recent survey for the New York Times finding him trailing by a much wider 54-40 margin, and other recent independent surveys have also been more bearish on his chances….
A new Salt Lake Tribune/Hinckley Institute poll in Utah’s 4th congressional district finds Rep. Mia Love (R-Utah) tied with challenger Ben McAdams (D), 46% to 46%.
Love led McAdams by six points in the last poll in June….
U.S. Senate Updated Predictions:
Current U.S. Senate: 49 D, 51 R
Arizona- Tossup (R)
California- Safe D/Leans Feinstein- change from Safe D/Likely Feinstein
Connecticut- Safe D
Delaware- Safe D – change from Likely D
Florida- Tossup (D)
Hawaii- Safe D
Indiana- Tossup (R)
Maine- Safe D/Safe King
Maryland- Safe D
Massachusetts- Safe D
Michigan- Likely D
Minnesota (A)- Safe D
Minnesota (B)- Likely D- change from Leans D
Mississippi (A)- Safe R
Mississippi (B)- Likely R
Missouri- Tossup (R)
Montana- Tossup (D)
Nevada- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)
New Jersey- Leans D
New Mexico- Safe D- change from Likely D
New York- Safe D
North Dakota- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
Ohio- Likely D
Pennsylvania- Likely D
Rhode Island- Safe D
Tennessee- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
Texas- Leans R
Utah- Safe R
Vermont- Safe D
Virginia- Safe D
Washington- Safe D
West Virginia- Leans D
Wisconsin- Likely D
Wyoming- Safe R
Predictions:
46 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
54 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)
Republican net gain of 3
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/2018-us-senate-predictions-updated.html
So, with all the allowances for tossups and other uncertainties, CG believes it most likely that the Democratic/independent caucus will gain no GOP seats, but lose three sitting Senators: Claire McCaskill (Missouri), Heidi Heitkamp (N. Dakota) and Joe Donnelly (Indiana).
Am I right?
I’ll have today’s polling update up a bit later BUT?
It’s actually close in Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona….
My call is 51 to 52 GOP in the Senate and I hope I’m wrong and turnout somehow does the trick for Democrats and they inch out a majority….