Cramer Leads In North Dakota
A new SRA poll in North Dakota finds Kevin Cramer (R) leads Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in the U.S. Senate race by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%.
Key finding: “Sixty percent of voters in North Dakota support Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court with 27% expressing opposition.”
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Manchin Holds Lead In West Virginia
A new Gray Television survey in West Virginia shows Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) leading challenger Patrick Morrisey (R) in his re-election race, 46% to 38%.
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Rosen Holds Small Lead In Nevada
A new CNN/SRSS poll in Nevada finds Jacky Rosen (D) leading Sen. Dean Heller (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43% among likely voters.
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McCaskill Just Ahead In Missouri
A new CNN/SRSS poll in Missouri finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) edges challenger Josh Hawley (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44% among likely voters.
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Trump’s Approval Remains at Historic Lows
A new Pew Research poll finds President Trump’s overall job rating stands at 38% and remains deeply divided by gender, race and educational attainment. While men are divided in views of Trump’s job performance (46% approve, 47% disapprove), more than twice as many women disapprove (63%) than approve (30%).
“As has been the case since he became president, Trump’s job approval ratings are divided along partisan lines; Trump’s job ratings are more polarized than any president dating to Dwight Eisenhower.”
“Similarly, there are large partisan divides in evaluations of Trump’s personal traits and characteristics, though the gaps are not as wide in views of Trump’s temperament and whether he stands up for his beliefs.”
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More Voters Say Don’t Confirm Kavanaugh
A new Quinnipiac poll finds 48% of American voters think the U.S. Senate should reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, while 42% say Kavanaugh should be confirmed.
Key takeaway: Women oppose confirmation 55% to 37%, while men support it 49% to 40%.
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Menendez Barely Ahead In New Jersey
A new Stockton University poll finds Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) barely ahead of challenger Bob Hugin (R), 45% to 43% among likely voters, with Libertarian Murray Sabrin at 3%.
“Menendez, who was reprimanded by a Senate ethics panel after corruption charges were dismissed following a mistrial, is viewed unfavorably by 54%, with 30% having favorable views and 6% unsure.”
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Cuomo Opens Massive Lead In New York
A new Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Marc Molinaro (R), 50% to 28% among likely voters.
Cynthia Nixon, the actress who lost to Cuomo in the Democratic primary election, remains on the November ballot on the Working Families Party line and gets 10%.
No room for complacency among Democrats (or, for that matter, Republicans).
Losing North Dakota and New Jersey would make it nearly impossible for Democrats to flip the Senate this year. Even should they hold onto their other nine Trump State seats (Mont, Wis, Mich, Ind, Ohio, Pa, W. Va, Fla & Mo) and take the trifecta of Arizona (Flake), Nevada (Heller) & Tennessee (Corker), their caucus (inc. King & Sanders) would have only 50 Senators to the GOP caucus’ 50, leaving the casting vote in the hands of VP Mike Pence (R).
Displacing Ted Cruz in Texas would theoretically get them to a majority, but how likely would that be when they’re losing North Dakota & New Jersey ?
I have a caution on NJ….
I remember several elections where everyone thought Jersey would go Red …
It didn’t happen…
That said?
The ads AGAINST the Jersey senator have been hard hitting on the local NYC metro channels….
They point to his on going legal saga that he beat…
I haven’t seen counter campaign ads for Menendez hardly at all….
Both Dem’s are up by a few though….
Silver over @ 538 only give Dem’s a 33% chance to gain the Senate….
Heitkamp is in deep shit in ND….
538 has her behind Cramer since June….
The Democrat KNOW they are reaching to get Schumer to take the gavel from McConnell….
Maybe the ‘Blue Wave’ could come their way for the US Senate also?
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our forecast has been *very* stubborn in ND, but finally has Cramer as a (slight) favorite there….
Twitter….
(Well…. Nate doesn’t think she’s quite out of it yet, he has her chances @ 45.9% v 54.1 for Cramer as of today) despite the polling numbers, eh?)
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
amp down 1 before the new poll… Down 3 now… in most trouble by far of any Dem incumbent. Heck, I’d put the chance of Beto winning as high as her right now, though some will disagree.
BTW?
Brian_Chovanec
@Brian_Chovanec
Replying to @ForecasterEnten
Replying to @ForecasterEnten
Seems like a bunch of polls out today bad for Dems (mostly in House but especially this one). Is there a justifiable reason, or just coincidence? Can’t think of anything that would have happened last week to push House/Senate polling rightward.
(Could the Kavanaugh beatdown be elevating GOPer voters in strong Trump places?)
I see very little chance of Democrats gaining control of the Senate.They would have to draw the equivalent of an inside straight.
Anything is possible
Donald Trump is the damn President….
POLITICO
@politico
GOP turns to Trump to rescue Tennessee Senate seat
Texas Governor:
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/texas-governor-race-of-day.html
Morning People….
Condolences, CG, on the Cubs losing to Milwaukee yesterday. Maybe they’ll do better in the N.L. wild-card game.
At least they had a better season then my NY Giants are starting off with….