Daily Polling Updates…..Lots of Polls!…Oct. 23, 2018

Tuesday, October 23

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Mississippi Senate – Wicker vs. Baria	NBC News/Marist	Wicker 60, Baria 32	Wicker +28
Mississippi Senate Special Election – Open Primary	NBC News/Marist	Hyde-Smith 38, Espy 29, McDaniel 15	Hyde-Smith +9
Mississippi Senate Run-Off Election – Hyde-Smith vs. Espy	NBC News/Marist	Hyde-Smith 50, Espy 36	Hyde-Smith +14
Mississippi Senate Run-Off Election – McDaniel vs. Espy	NBC News/Marist	Espy 43, McDaniel 36	Espy +7
Florida Governor – DeSantis vs. Gillum	Quinnipiac	Gillum 52, DeSantis 46	Gillum +6
California 48th District – Rohrabacher vs. Rouda	Monmouth	Rohrabacher 50, Rouda 48	Rohrabacher +2
Virginia 2nd District – Taylor vs. Luria	NY Times/Siena	Taylor 45, Luria 42	Taylor +3
Virginia 5th District – Riggleman vs. Cockburn	NY Times/Siena	Cockburn 46, Riggleman 45	Cockburn +1
Illinois 12th District – Bost vs. Kelly	NY Times/Siena	Bost 48, Kelly 39	Bost +9
Georgia 6th District – Handel vs. McBath	JMC Analytics	Handel 49, McBath 45	Handel +4
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 48, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +3

Add on from yesterday….

Indiana Senate – Braun vs. Donnelly vs. Brenton

SurveyUSA

Donnelly 41, Braun 40, Brenton 8

Donnelly +1

Real Clear Politics…

Today’s batch of Senate polls. As a reminder, you can click each race tag below to see the latest Daily Kos Elections polling average, as well as our current competitiveness rating for each race.

• AZ-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Martha McSally (R): 48, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46
• FL-Sen: OnMessage (R) for Rick Scott: Rick Scott (R): 51, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 46
• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 52, Rick Scott (R): 46 (Sept.: 53-46 Nelson)
• FL-Sen: SEA Polling (D): Rick Scott (R): 47, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 45
• FL-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50, Rick Scott (R): 45 (early Oct.: 48-45 Nelson)
• FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls: Rick Scott (R): 49, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (mid-Oct.: 49-47 Scott)
• IN-Sen: American Viewpoint (R) for Mike Braun: Mike Braun (R): 44, Joe Donnelly (D): 40 (early Oct.: 44-40 Braun)
• IN-Sen: SurveyUSA for Purdue University Fort Wayne: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 41, Mike Braun (R): 40, Lucy Brenton (L): 8
• MN-Sen-B: Mason-Dixon for the Star Tribune: Tina Smith (D-inc): 47, Karin Housley (R): 41 (Sept.: 44-37 Smith)
• MO-Sen: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Josh Hawley (R): 48, Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 47 (Sept.: 48-46 Hawley)
• ND-Sen: Strategic Research Associates for Gray TV: Kevin Cramer (R): 56, Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): 40 (Sept.: 51-41 Cramer)
• WV-Sen: Strategic Research Associates for Gray TV: Joe Manchin (D-inc): 52, Patrick Morrisey (R): 36 (Sept: 46-38 Manchin)

It’s a veritable poll-a-palooza in Florida, which has seen a ton of polling in general thanks both to its size and to the fact that it’s the only state hosting both Senate and gubernatorial races this year that look like toss-ups (and in fact, that’s exactly how we rate them). Perhaps most notable is the fact that Scott decided to release an internal, almost certainly to counter the numbers from the likes of Quinnipiac and SSRS, which show Nelson ahead by 5 to 6 points.

However, there’s one good reason to be skeptical of this poll: It also purports to show Republican Ron DeSantis leading 48-45 in the governor’s race. That’d make it the first survey pretty much since forever to find DeSantis up, but more on that in our gubernatorial polling section below.

In Indiana, Braun’s memo says that two previously unreleased polls gave him 4-point leads earlier this month. FiveThirtyEight has the sample size and field dates for each.

Almost every poll we’ve seen in October out of Missouri has given Hawley a 2- or 3-point edge. The only big exception was an early-October survey from the disreputable GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates that had him ahead 52-44.

The only other North Dakota poll we’ve seen in October was a Fox survey from the start of the month that showed Cramer up by a similar 53-41 spread.

In West Virginia, this is by far the best poll we’ve seen for Manchin this month, though even GOP pollsters have usually given him a small lead….

Daily Kos…