The pundits and polling forecaster’s think the odds are 1 in 6…
Democrats got some good news this morning from the latest NBC News/ Marist poll of Arizona, which showed Democrat Kyrsten Sinema besting Republican Martha McSally by six points in a two-way race among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent. (That advantage for Sinema narrows to three points when the ballot is expanded to include Green Party candidate Angela Green; in that three-way contest, Sinema leads 47 percent to 44 percent, with Green receiving 6 percent.)
Sinema’s slight lead is fueled by an advantage among Latinos (69 percent to 22 percent), independents (58 percent to 32 percent) and women (54 percent to 41 percent) — all key parts of a statewide Democratic coalition in the Grand Canyon State.
But that news also comes as Democrats’ onetime hopes of regaining control of the United States Senate have faded to a longshot, with North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp considered likely to be headed for a loss and with several other red state Democrats facing uphill battles. To win control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of two seats, arithmetic that leaves no margin for error….
First Read sees three remaining pathways for Democrats to regain control of the Senate:
- Democrats win the GOP-held Senate seats of Arizona and Nevada — and also hold on to ALL of their vulnerable seats in North Dakota, Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia.
- Democrats win the GOP-held Senate seats of Arizona, Nevada AND Tennessee, which allows them to lose ONE Democratic-held seat (like North Dakota).
- Democrats win the GOP-held Senate seats of Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee AND Texas, which allows them to lose TWO Democratic-held seats….