From an ole Politicaldog ?
A view of the voting results come November 7th….
The Democrats will take back a majority in US House…
All the hand wringing by pundits over the past week in just wiggle room if the world turns upside down…
That isn’t gonna happen…
There will be no Trump like miracle for the Republicans….
I’m thinking the Democrats come away with a 35-45 seat gain…
They only need 24 ….
For the US Senate?
Sorry Senator Schumer (D-NY)
You’ll have to hold on till 2021….
Then you will become the Majority leader of the US Senate ….
The 2020 election will have the Republicans defending too many seats to hold on to their control of the Senate….
I’m guessing the Grand ole’ Party majority moves from 51 – 49 to 53 – 48….
Senate Races to watch?
Arizona Nevada Tennesse and Texas…..
I talking to friend last night he pointed out that it seemed like American political power in the nation’s capital swings back and forth between the parties…
I smiled and agreed….
I pointed out that the guys who put together how the American Federal government works where pretty damn good….
image…mercurynews.com
I invite any forecasts to be listed in the comments here…
Dave Wasserman
New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
Twitter
Larry Sabato
Just had the umpteenth reporter and Texas political veteran from both parties tell me they think the polls are wrong on Texas Senate. Latest guy has reported from 7 @BetoORourke rallies recently & believes an upset will happen. As we saw in ‘16, polls are imprecise instruments.
Twitter….
There are more possible indications that theTexas US Senate race is closer then people might think, which would explain why Ted Ruiz seems worried about the vote….
The bare minimum, eh?
Any guesses from you DSD?
I’d like to see the guesses from the regulars or anyone else…
I won’t go any further than the probabilities I already gave: about 1 in 6 that the Democrats take both chambers and about 1 in 6 that the GOP keeps both chambers.
That’s not so far off what one of the pundits (538 or Larry Sabato) was estimating; 1 in 7 for a Dem. house and 1 in 5 fora GOP Senate.
Most likely is what everyone else foresees: a Republican Senate facing a Democratic House.
Correction: the pundit was estimating a 1 in 5 chance for a GOP House and a 1 in 7 chance for a Democratic Senate.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There’s now quite good alignment between the FiveThirtyEight model and race ratings put out by @CookPolitical @InsideElections and @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball. All point toward a modal range of D’s gaining like 28-42 seats. R majority still possible. Higher D gains also possible.
1:09 PM – 5 Nov 2018
Twitter…