The latest Q Poll will be looked at with glee by Democrats in Florida and Congress….
Bill Nelson has been trailing Florida’s GOP Governor Rick Scott up to this point….
If Nelson can jump on the coattails of Democratic Tallessae Mayor Andrew Gillum, who has been leading in the polling for the Governor’s race?
Democrats will be jumping for joy come November 7th…..
In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 – 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
This compares to a 49 – 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.
Today, women back Sen. Nelson 58 – 41 percent as men are divided, with 51 percent for Gov. Scott and 47 percent for the incumbent.
White voters back Scott 53 – 45 percent. Supporting Nelson are black voters 90 – 10 percent and Hispanic voters 61 – 39 percent.
Republicans back Scott 89 – 10 percent. Nelson leads 94 – 5 percent among Democrats and 56 – 40 percent among independent voters.
Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.
Nelson gets a 53 – 41 percent favorability rating, while Scott gets a negative 46 – 51 percent favorability rating.
Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 44 – 54 percent job approval rating.
“Sen. Bill Nelson has edged ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in the race for one of Florida’s U.S. Senate seats, breaking a 49 – 49 percent tie between the two men in the previous Quinnipiac University poll of this race earlier this month,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Sen. Nelson is ahead 53 – 46 percent by doing a tad better than Gov. Scott with their respective bases and holding a 16-point lead among the key independent voting bloc,” Brown added. “Nelson also leads among women and is breaking even among men – the traditional path to a Democratic victory.
“A Nelson win would be a big boost for Democratic hopes of wresting control of the U.S. Senate from the GOP.”….
More….
A Bill Nelson win would be extremely welcome and a great relief, but his seat is still just something for Democrats to keep rather than gain this year, as one of only four Democratic Senators south of the Mason-Dixon line (other than those from Maryland & Delaware) .
Three of them, Senators Nelson, Claire McCaskill (Missouri) and Joe Manchin (W. Virginia) are up for re-election or defeat this November, while Doug Jones of Alabama, elected in a special last year, does not face his voters until 2020.
However, two of the four Republican seats considered most vulnerable in November are from the South: Tennessee, where ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) seems to be ahead of Cong. Marsha Blackburn (R) to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R), and Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is facing a strong challenge from Beto O’Rourke (D). The other two most-vulnerable GOP Senate seats are in the Southwest: Arizona (Cong. Kirsten Sinema, D, vs Cong. Martha McSally, R, for the late John McCain’s seat) and Nevada (where Sen. Jeff Flake is not running again and I’ve forgotten who’s competing).
Just some friendly corrections to this…
The Arizona seat is the one currently held by Jeff Flake who is not seeking reelection.
In Nevada, incumbent Dean Heller is seeking reelection.
Thanks, CG, no offence taken since I was just face-palming myself (or palming my own face?) for packing so much misinformation into one sentence about the Southwest. I should have just written Arizona and Nevada without elaboration.
Manchin, Nelson and McCaskill are all polling UP over their GOP rivals at this time….
McCaskill is the most tenuous….
Democrats are looking good for Arizona and maybe Tennessee
Democrats have a bit less than 40% to take the Senate….
For 2020 they should take the Senate no matter what…