A new NBC/Marist poll might be saying….
Yes?….
The takeaway from the trio of NBC/Marist polls we released this week is that, yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to retaking the Senate in November. Given the Senate map, it’s probably not the most likely outcome. But it’s a real possibility — more than most people might think.
With the GOP controlling the Senate by a slim 51-to-49 margin — after the Dems’ surprising win in Alabama late last year — Democrats must gain a net of two Senate seats to take back the chamber (since Vice President Mike Pence can break a 50-50 tie). And their path to gaining those two Senate seats is: 1) by winning the GOP-held seats of Arizona and Nevada and holding on to ALL of their vulnerable seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia, or 2) by winning Arizona, Nevada AND Tennessee, and losing just one of their vulnerable states. (FYI: If Democrats somehow win Texas, they’re definitely winning the Senate.)
So what do our NBC/Marist polls show? Well, Democrats lead in Indiana and Tennessee (although within the margin of error), while it’s tied in Missouri….
image…c-span.org
More on Democrats a possible ‘wave’ US Senate coattail….
Dan Balz: “For months now, the focus of Campaign 2018, rightly, has been on control of the House. All the metrics continue to point to a midterm election in which Democrats could seize control of that chamber. But for sheer drama and unpredictability, the contest for control of the Senate could be the place to look.”
“No clear pattern is emerging in many of these races, which means a fall campaign in which strategists in both parties alternately dream of emerging with control of the chamber or sweating that the outcome will leave them in the minority.”
Politicalwire…
By small margins?
Democrats are AHEAD in some of the critical US Senate races less than 2 months out form election day….
IN-Sen: NBC/Marist has Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) leading ex-State Rep. Mike Braun (R) 44-41.
OH-Sen, OH-Gov, etc: Innovation Ohio (D) polled all the statewide races. They have Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) up by a surprisingly narrow 46-42 margin on Rep. Jim Renacci (R). AG Mike DeWine (R) leads ex-AG Richard Cordray (D) 45-43. Republicans hold leads of 2-4 points for all four Row Officer races.
TN-Sen, TN-Gov: NBC/Marist has Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) up 48-46 on Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R). The same poll has businessman Bill Lee (R) leading ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D) 53-40 in the gubernatorial race.
VA-Sen: Poolhouse & Cygnal (R) has Sen. Tim Kaine (D) up 50-45 on Prince William CE and self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart (R).
RRH Elections….
New Fox poll…..
Republican Kevin Cramer tops incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp among North Dakota likely voters by 48-44 percent, in a Fox News poll released Wednesday. Cramer’s edge in the Senate race is within the poll’s margin of sampling error….
More on the Fox poll….
Three Republican Senate candidates — Indiana’s Mike Braun, North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer and Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn — have slim leads in new Fox News polls, while two Democrats — Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) — have small advantages in polls of their states….
More…
Sen. Sherrod Brown has a significant lead over his Republican challenger, Rep. Jim Renacci, according to a new POLITICO/AARP poll in Ohio that also shows a neck-and-neck contest for governor.
In the Senate contest, the poll shows Brown leading Renacci 47 percent to 31 percent, with 22 percent undecided….
More…
Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) leads Republican challenger, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, by a slim margin in the state’s Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll.
McCaskill is polling at 44 percent among likely Missouri voters, compared to Hawley’s 41 percent, according to the poll….
The Hill…
Hawley made news a couple of weeks ago by suing the Branson Duck Boat company– whose vessel sank earlier in the summer on Table Rock Lake resulting in 17 passengers drowning.
Some hailed the action, however others claimed the lawsuit was hastily written and does not take into account that the boat’s pilot ignored the company’s own protocol for bad weather when he took the boat out.
AG’s ARE politicans….Some are better then others
U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) was a state Attorney-General. So were Calif. Governors Earl Warren and Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, Sr.
The Good!