We keep seeing hints at this in the polling coming down to last weeks before the November midterm vote….
The Cook Political Report moves three U.S. Senate race rankings towards the Democrats:
- MT-Sen moves from Likely D to Lean D
- TX-Sen moves from Lean R to Toss Up
- WV-Sen moves from Toss Up to Lead D
Jennifer Duffy: “Generally, races in the Toss Up column don’t break down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them. Over the past 10 cycles, no party has won less than 67 percent of all Toss Up races. In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party won 89 percent of the races in the Toss Up column. The working theory for this cycle has been that if Democrats end up winning a majority of the Toss Up races, then the political environment proved to be the factor driving the election.”