Politico has a piece on the view for Florida’s Democrats, starting with US Senator Bill Nelson’s problems….
Narrowly ahead with Hispanic voters, which Democratic thought would be a big boost for him?
The rest of the down ballot party candidates seem to be worried…
More Republican’s typically vote in midterm elections then Democrats…
That ,and the number of Democratic voters in the state seems to be declining….
What blue wave?
While it’s notched four consecutive wins in local bellwether races, Florida’s Democratic Party has lost a share of its registered voters in Florida since 2016 and the percentage of Democrats casting vote-by-mail absentee ballots this month trails those mailed in by Republicans, according to new figures from the state’s elections division.
A Democratic blue wave might still come. But so could a Republican red tide.
After all, this is purple Florida, the nation’s biggest swing state, where hard-to-predict elections are won on the margins and a 2-point win for a top-of-the-ticket candidate can look like a landslide.
“If a blue wave is forming, it certainly hasn’t crested. Maybe there’s a red tide coming in and affecting the blue wave?” said Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who studies the state’s voter rolls and trends.
So far, there’s enough data to show that some of Democrats’ hoped-for advantages — concerning Hispanic voters, Democratic voter registrations, Democratic ballots cast or young voters — haven’t clearly materialized heading into the Aug. 28 primary. With close Senate and gubernatorial races, Florida is one of the most important states for both parties in the 2018 midterms.
For this election, the percentage of active registered Democrats is down by nearly 2 percentage points compared with 2016, according to Florida Division of Elections data published Sunday for the primary. Because Florida doesn’t allow last-minute voter registration, the figures are final.
Some Democrats are worried, but they won’t say so publicly. They haven’t occupied the governor’s mansion in 20 years, and the only statewide elected Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, who is seeking reelection, is slightly trailing Gov. Rick Scott in recent polls as the Republican has unloaded on him in a broad TV ad campaign.
“None of us will admit this publicly, but we’re worried. Where’s the blue wave?”…