Over 100,000 of Puerto Rico’s islanders have moved to Florida in response to conditions after Hurricane Maria….
Reports and polling have not been good for Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ….
Few of the islanders, who can vote on the mainland know of Nelson and fewer have signed up to vote….
Nelson is running a few percentage points behind Nelson in the polling for November’s vote…
Democrats had planned for a edge from the newly relocated Puerto Ricans….
THAT does not seem to be happening….
The loss of Nelson’s US Senate would just about cement any chances for Democrats to squeak a narrow US Senate majority for next year,,,,,
Nelson like fellow House Democrat Crowley, seems to have forgotten the basic’s…..
‘ALL Politics is local.’….
His state’s Republican Governor has not….
“Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz supports Senator Bill Nelson because he’s a champion for Puerto Rico and will hold Trump accountable for his failed disaster relief efforts,” Soto said.
Florida Democrats were hoping for more Puerto Rican voters to be added to the rolls after Hurricane Maria, but so far they haven’t materialized, despite tens of thousands of evacuees coming to Florida.
Puerto Ricans, who have particularly flocked to Central Florida, are now the largest Hispanic group in the state, with more than 1.1 million residents. Experts estimate that at least 500,000 are voters. And while exit polls and voting analyses show that about 7 in 10 Boricua voters tend to vote for the Democrat on the ballot, they’ve had vexingly poor turnout during midterm elections for the party. About 16 percent of Florida’s registered voters are Hispanic.
Political insiders say they’re not sure if the politics of Hurricane Maria – specifically the widespread belief among Puerto Ricans that Trump’s administration did too little for the island – will be enough to hand Democrats a decisive advantage in Florida.
Complicating their efforts has been Scott’s decision to openly welcome hurricane evacuees, aggressively campaign in Spanish and tout the endorsements of the island’s lieutenant governor and its nonvoting member of Congress. Scott has also repeatedly visited the island next to Rosselló, who in turn has traveled repeatedly to Florida and promised to open up a political action committee to help advocate for the island…..
If there is an actual Democratic wave–even a small one–it’s hard to see where Nelson loses. These Senate races tend to all fall one way or the other. If Democrats win AZ and NV and have their sights on flipping TN and TX they’ll likely hold on in FL. If Republicans hold on to those seats and pick off Missouri and/or Indiana then Nelson could be in trouble.
Nelson is gonna have to work his ass off ….
I’m sure Democrats will be parachuting in till the end…..
Waves don’t always flow in one direction only. Most recent example that jumped to my mind is 2002, when the Democrats knocked off Asa Hutchimson’s brother Tim as Senator from Arkansas at the same time that the GOP was picking up vulnerable Democratic seats in Minnesota (Wellstone/Mondale), Missouri (Jean Carnahan) and Georgia (Max Cleland).
But a review of the relevant Wikipedia articles (United Staes Senate elections, 20–) fills in my dimmer recollection of 2004 (Dems pieked up 2 in Illinois & Colorado, while the Republicans replaced minority leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota plus that coastal string of retiring Southern Democrats in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida & Louisiana).
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2004
2012 was also mixed, as Ben Sasse (R) upset Ben Nelson (D) in Nebraska at the same time that Democrats were picking up Republican seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Indiana (Richard Lugar). [Just to confuse simple statistics, Independents lost Joe Lieberman’s seat to Democrat Chris Murphy in Connecticut but succeeded retiring Republican Olympia Snowe in Maine.]
However, Scott’s thesis seems to hold good in other recent Senatorial elections.
Mixed bag, eh?
I also am a little surprised that Nelson is struggling in Florida. I suspect that Scott standing up to the NRA has something to do with it.
The piece on Nelson points to Scott embracing the people coming to Florida from Puerto Rico to Florida….
Democrats, me included , thought that Dem voters from the island would help Dem Nelson….
But Scott’s action is known
Nelson seems to be absent on this
Just like Crowley
If you get too Wash DC?
People look at others to vote for
I hope he can go to ground in Florida and recover