Trump has grown less popular in the Midwest….
But Surprise!
He is actually more popular in Florida….
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is behind current Republican Gov. Rick Scott in the polls also….
(Scott is also more popular with Democratic Puerto Ricans who have come to Florida recently due to Hurricane Maria)
President Donald Trump is substantially less popular a year and a half into his presidency than when he initially took office. His popularity in the Midwest has completely deflated. And more people disapprove of him than approve in almost every single swing state that proved crucial to his 2016 victory — except in one: Florida.
Trump’s state-by-state approval rating has significantly dropped over the past year and a half. In January 2017 he had a net-positive approval rating in almost every state in the country, except California, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhodes Island. That’s far from the case now.
Morning Consult has been tracking Trump’s net-approval rating (the percentage of approval minus the percentage of disapproval) since he took office. Here’s what the map looked like as of June 2018; the states shaded green are where more people approved than disapproved of Trump, and those tinted red are where more disapproved of the president than approved of him.
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As you can see, Trump is currently polling better in Florida than he is in Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Utah, Nevada, or North Carolina (all states that proved crucial to his 2016 presidential win)….
This should be of concern to Democrats.
While there had been a lot of talk about the states increasing Hispanic population . There is little about in migration by northerners ,many ,if not most of whom are Republicans.
Further, the growing Hispanic population, while likely a harbinger of better Democratic Electoral performance years down the road, seemingly is not translating into Democratic Electoral victories in the present.
Many of these Hispanic newcomers, even the Puerto Rican’s who are citizens, are not organized and are either ineligible to register due to not being citizens or are apathetic about voting even though able to do so.
Presently, it is actually difficult to call Florida truly a “swing” state.I would rank it as “weak Republican “ and Scott as a slight favorite to defeat Nelson.
If that happens it becomes even more unlikely that Democrats could retake the Senate.The odds of that happening are already weak.In my view about 1 in 5.
There was a poll out…
I think I did the post on Nelson vs Scott….
The majority of those from PR that have come to Florida as Democrats and might be able to vote in Florida have NO idea who the heck Nelson is….
They DO know who the Governor is….
Some of this may go to my view about incumbents and Ocasio-Cortez/Crowley
Re:
When its your job on the line?
YA HAVE TO come home and campaign…
You might roll with the Beltway DC crowd most of the time…
But the vote is local or state wide for your employment….
Nelson is only less than 5 point behind Scott in the polls….
So he needs to get ass down to Florida and campaign….
And yea…
Nelson losing would make it virtually impossible for Schumer to become Majority Leader of the Senate now…
Schumer probably will make that spot in 2021…
Here’s my post on Nelson vs Scott in Florida…..
Remember, also, that 3 out of every 10 Hispanics (and 3 out of every 7 women) supported Donald Trump in 2016.
For obvious reasons, Donald Trump will never get so much Hispanic support as the Bushes or even Mitt Romney, but one can’t automatically assign some D + 80% or + 90% to Hispanics (or Latinxs) in the way one can now do with the African-American electorate.
True, plus Florida, like Texas ,has had ,for a number of years ,a substantial Republican voting Hispanic faction, Cubans.(although of late that group has shown more willingness to support Democrats and even the Cuban Republicans are more critical of Trump than other GOPers.)
This is a Survey Monkey poll, they suck at polling (one of the reasons I hate poll averaging since polls like this get averaged in). There are other polls out that have Nelson up, and the Democrats are busy registering new residents. I refuse to believe Puerto Rican folks will vote for the Party that threw paper towels at them.
I agree on the reliability of Survey Monkey….
But Nelson needs to get his ass in gear and campaign IN FLORIDA…..
The poll on the Puerto Rico Dem’s in Florida pointed to name recognition…
Nelson needs to get on the map in certain places in the state…