A second look at the recent Generic poll numbers could reveal that Democrats REMAIN fired up for the 2018 Midterm vote….
A new poll conducted by George Washington University released Wednesday suggests Democratic voters are more engaged in multiple respects than Republican voters ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.
Forty-six percent of Democrats polled said they used social media to share an opinion, while 37 percent of Republicans said they do the same, according to an analysis of the poll published by the Washington Post.
Forty-two percent of Democrats said they had spoken to anyone about how to vote, while 33 percent of Republicans said they too had spoken with people on the subject, according to the Post.
The poll also found that Democratic voters were more active in campaign activities such as attending rallies, displaying campaign merchandise, and making donations….
In fact, there is an abundance of evidence that Democratic House prospects are as good as they have been for months and the House is still very likely to flip.
Often, a healthy dose of common sense is more useful than a single misleading public opinion survey. Less than two months ago, I wrote “It seems very unlikely that there has been a fundamental shift in sentiment (in the generic ballot) among registered voters,” and “If I were you, I’d wait for the next round of generic ballot tests from the major pollsters before getting too excited about the most recent [Washington Post-ABC News] generic ballot result,” which showed a dramatically narrower 4-point Democratic advantage.
Two months earlier, on Feb. 12, my column — “The Generic is Falling! The Generic is Falling!” — had expressed skepticism that things had changed much and estimated that “the generic ballot probably now sits in the mid-single digits, in the 5- to 8-point range,” which I thought put the fall campaign on a trajectory toward Democratic control of the House.
Well, the newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has the Democrats with a 10-point advantage in the generic ballot, Fox News has it at 9 points and Quinnipiac at 7 points — all very reasonable numbers and all generally consistent with my view that Democrats have a clear and consistent advantage in the generic somewhere in the mid- to upper-single digits…
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Most voters critical of Trump and his agenda will find plenty of reasons to continue to dislike him and to promise to vote Democratic in the fall.
Of course, given the president’s unpredictability, his likely campaign messaging between now and November, and all of the unknowns, it’s still too early to be certain where the public will be on control of Congress at election time.
But the fundamentals remain very much with the Democrats, as they have been for more than a year.
Midterms are almost always about the president. Twenty-three Republicans sit in districts carried by Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump’s job approval ratings are mediocre at best.
Democrats are angry and energized, as demonstrated by high-profile recent elections in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as from many local races around the country….
A new Monmouth poll finds that Democrats hold a 7 point lead over Republicans in the generic House ballot, 48% to 41%. This is similar to the 49% to 41% edge Democrats held six weeks ago in Monmouth’s polling.
The poll also finds that just 34% of the public approve of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last December and 41% disapprove..
Politicalwire…
Taegan Goddard
@politicalwire
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