— Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority.
— Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control.
— Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now.
Checking in on 2018’s big picture
In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American politics is in a state of perpetual campaigning. As soon as one campaign concludes with an election, candidates for the next election start to emerge. That will be the case after this November’s election, when one would expect the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination to begin in earnest.
Still, the effective start of summer offers an opportunity to assess where the races for the House, Senate, and governorships stand. So we thought we’d offer brief updates on the state of play….
Today is the filing deadline in Alaska and in what sounds like a surprise, former Democrat Senator Mark Begich is filing to run for Governor.
This will force incumbent Bill Walker, who was elected in 2014 with the support of Democrats, and who had intended to seek the party’s nomination, into running strictly as an Independent in November.
Suffice to say, this leads to a much bigger opening for a Republican pick-up now with Democrats split like this.