…from Roll Call….
It’s dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special contests over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are struggling to hold open seats.
The over-performance by Democratic candidates hasn’t been limited by geography, considering they have done better than expected in Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Arizona, even if they’ve fallen short in all but one of those races.
Based on that trend, here are our rating changes….
| THE DEMOCRATS’ DRIVE FOR 25 IN THE HOUSE: AN UPDATE |
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This piece revisits a proposed path to a Democratic House majority we sketched out in early February. — Overall, the Democrats’ odds in the districts mentioned have largely but not universally gotten a little better. — The California primary on June 5 looms as the most important date in the battle for the House between now and the November election. — The Democrats’ odds of retaking the House majority remain about 50-50. — One ratings change this week: Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican following liberal nonprofit executive Kara Eastman’s (D) upset of former Rep. Brad Ashford (D, NE-2) in Tuesday night’s primary. More explanation is below….. More from Sabato’s Crystal Ball…. |
Nate Silver on the Democratic ‘wave’ that some pundits are beginning to get the jitters about….
via twitter…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Per betting markets, Democrats’ chances of winning the House have decreased from ~66% to ~58% over the past few months. It’s a change worth noticing if you’re an electoral junkie I guess? But either way the uncertainty remains super high. Polling isn’t too precise in House races.