First of all?
That Generic poll that had the GOPer’s closing to within 2% of Democrats a week or so ago?
Now has the Democrats UP +7…..
The flash of enthusiasm among GOPer’s was short lived…
Smart Republicans KNOW that their House majority has 6 months to run….
….fundamentals matter—and so many of them are locked into the Democrats’ favor, big-time. It’s impossible to ignore the consistently supercharged Democratic turnout in election after election, from swing districts to those fought on conservative turf. Even if you look to the larger contests (like last year’s governor’s races) as a stronger indicator, the results are highly encouraging for the Democratic Party. If in our polarized times, Democrats simply win most GOP-held Clinton seats and pick off competitive open-seat races where Republicans retired, they’re well on their way to a narrow majority….
History doesn’t bode well for House Republicans, either. In a president’s first term, the party in power typically loses a large chunk of seats, especially when a president’s approval rating is languishing as badly as Trump’s. That holds true this year, even with Trump’s job-approval rating ticking up into the low 40s. There will be enough persuadable voters who reluctantly backed Trump—as a balance to an expected Clinton victory, perhaps—who will cast their ballot for Democratic candidates simply as a check on Republican control of government.
The actions of many respected GOP lawmakers also tell a clear story about this year’s political mood. Thirty-nine House Republicans have announced they’re leaving instead of running for reelection this cycle—the highest number of departures for the party since at least 1930—depriving the party of incumbency, their greatest asset in many competitive districts. House Speaker Paul Ryan’s abrupt decision to leave Congress was the biggest signal of GOP political panic, but many of his colleagues are making similar calculations….
The RealClear Politics Generic Congressional Vote average has a Democratic +4 average