They move four November House races to the Republican’s favor…
But with caution….
After a rough start to year, House Republicans are suddenly feeling less pessimistic about their fall prospects. At the “macro” level, robust economic data and positive developments on the Korean peninsula have helped lift President Trump’s approval rating to 42 percent , his best mark in over a year. Concurrently, Democrats’ lead over Republicans on FiveThirtyEight’s generic congressional ballot average has ebbed from 12 points in January to just five points today.
Republicans have also received small doses of good news at the “micro,” race-by-race level. After a winter dominated by a new, unfriendly map in Pennsylvania and a special election loss, May has been kinder to the GOP: Democrats have had sub-optimal primary outcomes in Pennsylvania’s 1st CD and Nebraska’s 2nd CD, with more possible. And since Speaker Paul Ryan announced his exit on April 11, 40 days have passed without a GOP retirement.
However, it’s also important to remember that voter intensity matters just as much as presidential approval and the generic ballot margin, and Republicans still can’t point to hard election data that proves their base has suddenly closed the “intensity gap” in the last few months….
Three ways Pelosi won’t be Speaker next year:
https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/nancy-pelosi-speaker-republicans
The first one is obvious, but I have mentioned scenario #3 a few times.
I saw this….
As long as they get their majority she’s lock….
Just about anything less and she’s out….
The conclusion of the piece is that she is unlikely to be Speaker, (based on present expectations of Democrat gains) even if they win the majority.
It’s important to understand the concept behind the scenario.
I disagree …..
She keeps her job as a payback….
Anything else is stupid….
Archie Parnell, the South Carolina Democrat who came surprisingly close in a special Congressional election last year, is now facing calls to drop out, as endorsements are being rescinded and staffers are resigning upon the news surfacing that he physically assaulted his former wife in the 1970s.
There are also ongoing protests going on about current California Democrat Congressman Tony Cardenas who is under an Ethics Investigation and is being sued by a woman who claims he sexually assaulted her about a decade ago when she was underage.
FWIW, there is a brand new Reuters poll showing a massive change in the past week and with Republicans now holding a six point *lead* on the Congressional generic ballot.
Talk of a “red wave” abounds on other sites from Trumpists.
If Republicans were to make gains this year like Democrats did in the 1998 midterms or Republicans did in 2002 the GOP will be even more firmly in the Trump camp than it is now.
So not sure why you would want that. Unless you are going to come around and embrace Trumpism too.
Which I wouldn’t put past you. Your hatred of us Democrats goes back so long I can see all this “principle” going out the window.
If the GOP were to make gains this year… in the House…. Democrats need to go to Code 5 Crisis Alert and basically file for Political Chapter 11 because the only way they are going to prevent Trump from winning a second term would be to stand down in favor of an Independent candidate like Kasich.
But yes, that is entirely speculative and a bit “out-there” at the moment.
As for me, I am not predicting a Blue Wave or a Red Wave. I expect Democrats to have a good midterm, but what the actual scenario is remains to be seen. (Online, I see mostly a Brown Wave.) I don’t “want” any particular results for the parties. I am agnostic about it all at this point. I hope that state by state, district by district, the candidate wins, regardless of if they are D, R, or I, who has the best combination of competence, ideology, and character.
That’s funny because you previously said the Democrats have a better chance at beating Trump in 2020 if they do NOT win the House this year.
Now you claim that if they don’t they are hopeless as a party.
So which is it?
There’s a difference between falling short of winning the House and actually *losing* ground. A big difference.
But yes, expectations and historical trends, certainly including Trump’s anemic poll numbers, the *slew* of Republican retirements, etc. etc., are such that there really is no excuse for Democrats to not win the 24 seats needed to take the House.
Only if the vote don’t turn out….
I can’t get out Natalie Merchant singing in my head:
Because the House belongs to lovers, because the House belongs to love,
Because the House belongs to lovers, because the House belongs to love,
Take Back the House; Take Back the House; Take Back the Houusse…
The Democrats will need the votes a lot more than 10, 000 Maniacs.