First Read: “Don’t bet on Democrats continuing their streak of special-election victories in districts/states Trump carried when Debbie Lesko (R) faces off against Hiral Tipirneni (D) on Tuesday in the race to replace former Rep. Trent Franks, (R-AZ).”
“But maybe the bigger story tomorrow, at least when it comes to judging if the political winds are still blowing at the Democrats’ backs, will be looking at the ultimate margin of Lesko vs. Tipirneni in this district Trump carried by 21 points in 2016. In the eight major contests of 2017 and 2018, Democrats have outperformed Hillary Clinton’s margin in these same districts/states by, on average, about 12 points… So Democrats keeping the race to single digits would match that average over-performance.”
Said the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman: “Really anything above ~41% in #AZ08 (R+13 PVI) would be consistent w/ Dems on track to win the House or a statewide AZ race.”….
Politicalwire…
The Arizona Special is today….
Republicans are expected to win this one….
More…
Yeah my guess is the GOP candidate wins it by 8.
Which is quite a drop off from what Franks won it by. Trump will take credit.
Of course he will for ANY win….
Cong. Martha McSally (R-Ariz), now running to replace retiring GOP Senator Jeff Flake, but coming from Warwick, R.I., via the USAF, is reported in Monday’s Wall Street Journal of being psychologically pressured for sex by her track coach at St Mary’s Academy Bay View, a select Catholic school in East Providence, RI (also the alma mater of a recent Miss Universe, Olivia Culpo). The track coach denies the allegations.
Polls close in Arizona in 10 minutes….
Woa!…
via twitter….
🚨 Reminder: There are 12 special elections to keep track of tonight! https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/21/1758947/-April-24-New-York-s-Spring-Special-Elections-Spectacular …
in other races ,,,,
via twitter…..
Vox
@voxdotcom
Democrats have won two key state Senate seats in New York’s special election, but despite holding a 32-31 senate majority, won’t regain full control of the statehouse.
A rogue Democratic senator said Tuesday he will continue to caucus with Republicans.
via twitter….
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Breaking: Lesko leads 53%-47% in early ballots. #AZ08
via twitter…
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Lesko (R) claims a mere 5.8 point lead in the early vote. That will probably be enough. Tipirneni would need a very big lead in late absentees/Election Day votes. There could be around 25k left or perhaps even less, and Tipirneni has a 9k vote deficit. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/24/us/elections/results-arizona-house-special-election.html …
Republican Debbie Lasko is the projected winner in the AZ-08 Special election…
A tighter margin…
But a win as expected…..
This was a strong Trump district that shows slippage….