Yea….
It’s WTF toooooo early …..
But last August?
Kasich was AHEAD of Trump by 12% points
President Trump leads a pair of potential Republican challengers in a theoretical 2020 New Hampshire primary, a survey published Monday showed.
The American Research Group poll, reported first by BuzzFeed News, found Trump leads Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent, in a two-way race among likely Republican voters. Trump leads Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) by a wider margin, 49 percent to 33 percent, with 18 percent of voters undecided, the poll found.
In a hypothetical matchup where Trump, Kasich and Flake all run in 2020, Trump leads with 51 percent. Kasich earns 34 percent in that scenario, while Flake earns 4 percent.
The poll surveyed 420 Republicans between March 21-17, and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points…..
image…longroom.com
This is very good poll results for Kasich and the country. It tells me that Trump’s support is soft and a bruising challenge by someone is inevitable. To be this close in the race without campaigning is very notable. I’m excited!
It also tells me that even with the 70% approval within the party?
AT THIS TIME?
People aren’t all that happy with him….
Kasich was way ahead of him though last summer…
I don’t think any previous poll is relevant. It would be inconceivable for an elected President to be trailing in a primary in any state this early in their term.
New Hampshire may be a special case where there is deep rooted opposition to Trump among some elements of the party, and where Kasich has a base.
With all that in mind, it wouldn’t be the smartest thing for Kasich to attempt to challenge Trump in the Republican primary in NH. Instead, he should focus on how he might be able to gain a plurality of the vote and carry NH in the November election as an Independent.
Just completely for fun, I decided to play around a bit just now with a three-way electoral map.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kQd0p
Imagine this scenario…. all the more reason why people like me may want the House to stay in Republican hands in 2018.
This is actually what I would leave it as:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kQd0p
Maine and Nebraska is tricky
https://www.270towin.com/maps/d0lVl
184-181-73
Sorry, 184-181-173
A more realistic 3-way race is that all of the states that CG said would go for Kasich would instead go to the Democrat – with the exception of Iowa and Utah. Kasich even fails to carry his home state.
I fear that Iowa may have permanently moved to the GOP column.
Morning people….
Sorry for the delays….
Had to clear over 100 spam comments…
I agree Z….
Kasich got beat good before….
And is actually down from where he was last August….
Mueller could be factor though….
A Trump beatdown could have him packing his bags early, or weaken him enabling a primary….
I just can’t see a Bill Clinton bounce back…
You want the House to stay in Republican hands because you are Republican and support Republican policies. Why rationalize it behind some silly 3rd party scenario?
The only times in the past 100 years a third party got more than a goose egg total in the Electoral College were the electiins of 1968, 1948 and 1924
In two of those instances the candidates only won states in their native region (the South) and in the third the candidate won only his home state.
Even Ross Perot who received 20% of the national vote in 1992 could not fare better than a distant 2nd in two states when it came to winning electoral votes.
I don’t see Kasich having any regional pull outside of possibly hus home state of Ohio.
Its a fun game to play, but very unlikely.
As I said yesterday CG can use this pipe dream of an election thrown to the House as some cover for hoping the GOP holds thc House. But even if that lightning were to strike why would Congressional Republicans pick an independent over Trump if he is the actual GOP nominee?
And of course the media LOVES this!
If it gets thrown to the House, then the House chooses between the top two finishers, which would be the Democrat and the Independent under the “fun and hypothetical” map I did.
Also, it’s not a straight up or down vote. Each state casts one vote. So, theoretically, the Democrats could hold the majority, via California or whatever, and lose because more states have a Republican-majority delegation
He, he, he…..
Give us a break CG, huh?
The hypothetical Electoral map I made in April of 2018 is every bit as plausible as a map made in April of 2014 showing Donald Trump winning all the states he did.
People need to accept that we are living in some pretty unprecedented times, for better or worse.
The Donald Trump of 2014/2016 is NOT ethe Donald Trump of TODAY , this November , or if he lasts, 2020….
Yes….
Trump did what Bush did in Electoral College…
But the way things are going now?
And who ever Trump or Pence would be facing is gonna be warned and BETTER than Hillary Clinton….
No it’s not as plausible. Republicans vote for the Republican nominee. No matter how heinous and racist. Once Trump was the nominee he was in a good place to win the Presidency. An independent candidate faces far more hurdles and there is no reason to believe Republicans will rush to a third party and even less reason to believe Democrats will not rally behind the Democratic nomibee.
This argument is silly….
3rd party Presidential runs let alone congressionbal one’s just DO NOT Jell….
Only 2 US Senator’s that I know…
And they come from small states that support their independence….
And those two don’t even act as indies…
Again, you are replying to something in a way that has no relevance whatsoever to a previous point.
Do we know whom the Democrats will be nominating in 2020? A whole lot of people who held their nose and voted for Hillary Clinton may not be able to do that for the next nominee, as the party moves even further to the left.
And whether we like it or not or want to admit it or not, the idea of Donald Trump as “President” is a lot less “crazy” for people to grasp now then at any point before the 2016 election.
This whole third party speculation truly is like a fantasy football game. Fun maybe, but a fucking fantasy.
The ultimate wet dream from a life long Republican who cannot believe, still to this day, that his party has nominated and elected a racist sexist pussy grabber. But, not only did they nominate him and support him with an 86% approval rating, but the GOP Congressional delegation supports and defends this pig daily.
Embarrassing yes, but the natural progression for a party that created the Southern Strategy and have been using it to win elections with it for over 50 years.
These people are afraid of “colored folk” and Trump knows exactly how to keep them stirred up.
So, this fantasy third party discussion is a humorous distraction, but way, way off topic.
Of course if I were a member of the GOP I would want to change the subject too.
Maybe we’ll hear how the party is just made up of the GOP curse word ‘Liberal’s’ again?
couldn’t happen?
Last August Kasich was ahead of Trump by DOUBLE DIGITS…
1. I don’t recall that
2. I don’t think that would have been accurate
3. It doesn’t matter, since they are not going to be facing off in an NH Republican primary
4. In any event, Trump is far weaker among NH Republicans and Independents than any other incumbent would be
5. Kasich has a base in NH among anti-Trump Republicans, Independents, and some Democrats
The poll only serves to do what say
Show Trump’s weakness
I don’t believe he’ll be around to run after stepping down
BUT?
Remember
He IS very effective in a one on one political knife fight
Not Scott nor anyone else here would have said after Trump won the nomination in 2016 that he was in “a good place to win the Presidency.”
You all (and me too) expected him to lose in a landslide.
After 2016, we all ought be a little bit more cautious about assuming what is or is not possible.
We ARE….
There will be NO 3rd Parety President any time soon CG…
You sound like SE on this….
In effect, we have a third party President now.
I maintain that anything is possible in the crazy times we live in, and that SE was correct about Trump becoming President.
I also was correct, way back in 2012, in predicting the Chicago Cubs would specifically win the World Series in 2016.
No we do NOT….
Donald Trump adopted and then stole the GOP lawmakers base voters…
Jack and others ARE correct…
He IS the face of the party even if his parties lawmakers often go their own way…
He, he, he….
We KNOW SOME of your calls have come out right…
So has Nate Silver…
And he, like you, me and others missed the boat in 2016….
We do not have a third party President. We have a Republican President that Republican candidates in primaries are stepping over themselves to be the most like in Republican voter’s eyes.
Because he (for now) made the Republican Party into a third party,
Split sort of…
But no doubt Republicans
You should have stuck with “Tepuclisn”
What’s the Second party?
Posted a comment about twenty minutes ago that is stuck in moderation .
It was only five words long.Am I the only one with this problem or are all posts being subject to this lengthy moderation?
In all honesty Jack?
The filters have mind of their own
Some of DSD’s comments come straight up
Some do not
CG ‘sgenerally come right up
Scott ‘s come up for a few
Then don’t
The system pushes me to over see the comments in real time….
Sometimes I can
Sometimes I can’t
I see that most here have adjusted
I’m sorry for the sometimes waits
This morning I have over 100 spams
It took almost an hour for my five word post to appear.
The filter must lean right!
The numbers for the place have begun to improve also after the lay months problems
Let’s see how much Republican opposition there is to Trump’s latest crazy idea–putting U.S. troops on the border.
Defense Sec Mattis is apparently opposed to this idea but let’s see if a single Republican Senator or Congresssman will forcefully oppose. My guess is they will continue to be too chickenshit.
Defeat all Republicans so we have an actual check on this mad man.
Actually?
Obama sent 6,000 ‘troops’ to the border during his time in office…(He later cut the number in half….Bush also sent troops there)
They where NOT combat troops , which is forbidden….
They simply helped with intelligence and other support functions…
The action didn’t make too many people happy.…
I’m sure Trump doesn’t understand all of this and thinks he can get a ‘deal’ by putting the troops out there , then barginging them for the wall…
Congress is simply NOT gonna do this…
Republicans have not given him the money….
The guy is besides himself to get the fucking wall…..
Oops, I used a bad name; replaced with initials
CG is mistaken in thinking that the House (in the event of no candidate receiving a majority of the presidential Electoral votes) can only pick from the top two. In fact the Constitution’s 12th Amendment says from the candidates having the highest number of votes not exceeding three. So, given the marvellous ambiguity of the document, I guess it’s up to the House itself, or perhaps the Speaker or the parliamentarian, to decide whether to choose between two or three candidates.
¶ However, CG would be right if referring to the choice of Vice President when no candidate has a majority of the Electoral votes. In that case, the Senate votes from among the top two candidates.
So even if (as in 1912) the Republican came in 3rd, he or she could still be elected President by a majority of the states as represented in their House delegations.
Here’s the relevant language for you to parse:
“The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. […] The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
So, top three are eligible? I’ve heard otherwise elsewhere. In any event, it is a Constitutionally recognized path.
Post stuck in moderation, possibly by a link to Wikipedia.
Ur up DSD…