Things are just getting worst for the House Republicans….
Not just with the generic polling numbers…
But the Cook Political Report looks at the campaign money numbers report and changes up their calls based on the wide spread increased Democratic fundraising numbers ….
With less than seven months before the election, the list of GOP members who trail Democrats in cash on hand includes Reps. Tom McClintock (CA-04), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48), Jack Bergman (MI-01), Mike Bishop (MI-08), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22), Robert Pittenger (NC-09), Ted Budd (NC-13), Keith Rothfus (PA-17), Ralph Norman (SC-05), Tom Garrett (VA-05) and Glenn Grothman (WI-06).
In light of the most recent FEC filings, we’re updating our ratings in seven districts, all reflecting improved Democratic prospects. View our full House ratings here. Subscribers can read the Bottom Lines for these changes here.
AZ-08: VACANT (Franks) | Solid R to Likely R
AR-02: Hill | Likely R to Lean R
IL-14: Hultgren | Likely R to Lean R
MI-01: Bergman | Solid R to Likely R
OH-14: Joyce | Solid R to Likely R
SC-05: Norman | Solid R to Likely R
VA-05: Garrett | Likely R to Lean R
The Cook Political Report identifies “seven risk factors” for House GOP incumbents in the midterm elections:
Sits in a district with a Cook PVI score of R+5 or less Republican.
Sits in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
Received 55 percent of the vote or less in the 2016 election (or a 2017 special election).
Voted in favor of the American Health Care Act in the May 4 roll call vote.
Voted in favor of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the December 19 roll call vote.
Raised less money than at least one Democratic opponent in the first quarter of 2018.
Has a Democratic opponent with at least $200,000 in cash on hand as of March 31.
“Only one incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), has all seven risk factors. Eight incumbents have six risk factors, 23 incumbents have five, 23 incumbents have four and 32 have three.”
Nate Silver and Steve Kormacki caution about early voting and results calling….
Other elections that ought to encourage caution about prognostication from early voting data include 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002 and 2000.
AZ-8 is an example of why I tend to take early voting info with a big grain of salt. The party breakdown of the (very large) early voting universe was similar this year to 2016 — slightly more GOP in fact. But the actual election results were a world apart: