It’s so bad for Republicans that it’s reported that Trump has been privately bad mouthing his parties guy….
By the way?
This House district will be cut up into 4 come January ….
Democrats are hopeful this continues the build -up to a November ‘wave’ election that gives them back control of the US House….
A new Monmouth University poll in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district finds Conor Lamb (D) leading Rick Saccone, 51% to 45%, “if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year.”
“Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage.”
“This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.”…
“Publicly, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did little to help Conor Lamb (D). Behind the scenes was a different story,” McClatchy reports.
“The Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania’s special House election — whom polls suggest is poised to pull off a shock upset in Tuesday’s race over Rick Saccone (R) — benefited from a quiet but determined DCCC effort to boost his candidacy.”…
More…
….
“The chairman of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party said the special election in which Conor Lamb (D) is running neck-and-neck with Rick Saccone (R) is in a ‘Democrat district,’ even though it was represented by a Republican for more than a decade and President Trump won it handily in 2016,” Politico reports….
More…
Reminds me of posts I read here ocassionally about all these “conservative” Democrats in the south.
Yes there were a lot of those,a quarter century ago.
Wonder how many “illegal aliens” will be voting ?
I don’t know Jack
But if Trump is keeping his batting average going ?
Lamb is is a sure winner….
Less than 45 minutes until the polls close for this one in Pa.
Less than 30 min for PA-18….
Polls closed in Pa-18 special vote
They expect results to come in starting st around 9:3pm
Forget that first 2 Greene Cty prct’s Give Lamb a lead…..
Clinton lost both….
Bridgeville Pct has Lamb ahead in a place Clinton had trouble also
58% in…..
Lamb…….52.2%
Saccone….47.2
61%in….
Lamb…52.7
Saccone…46.7
71% in….
Lamb….51.5%
Saccone…47.9
78% in….
Lamb….51.0
Saccone…48.4
87% in….
lamb…..50.4
saccone…49.0
91% in….
lamb….50.1
saccone..49.3
I don’t live anywhere near the district but George Soros paid me to vote there 9 times
He, he
NINE TIMES, eh?
Still too early to call (say CNN and MSNBC).
WAY too close….
95% in….
lamb….49.9
saccone…49.5
My prediction was Lamb in a Tossup, but come on, this recount will be fun!
They are doing the absentee ballots….
We have to see WHERE the votes are still comin in from….
They think by midnight for the whole thing….
96% in….
Lamb…50.00
Saccone…49.4
The site is still crashing all the time…
_____________________________________________________
I’m *sorta* rooting for the Democrat on this one, and it feels weird, but I am largely agnostic.
I think it’s just because the Trumpists are pulling so hard on another site for Saccone, whom I think sucks.
Had this site not been down for several days and I had to watch Keith gush about Conor Lamb, I’d probably be rooting against him.
He, he, he……
You got a reprieve ?
Keith is trying to get on to say his piece….
97% in….
Lamb…49.9
Saccone…49.5
Allegany County is probably gonna decide the win says John King over at CNN…
918 voter margin right now…
More votes due in….
Absence ballots also being counted ….
6,951 of them to be reported….
Dana Bash is hearing that Lamb needs 57% out of Alleganty county…..
This is MUCH closer than the final poll that had Lamb ahead by 6%….
98% in…
585 vote margin now….
Absentee tee ballots WILL decide this….
Around 12midnight they could announce the absentee ballot count….
around a 700 vote margin….
via twitter…
Elena Schneider
@ec_schneider
Confirmed: 1,195 absentee ballots in Washington County won’t be counted until tomorrow morning. #PA18
…..About 4,000 will be processed within the next 30 minutes CNN reports…..
Washington County also CNN’s King is waiting for….
755 vote margin for Lamb….
Washington County new vote drops Lamb’s margin to 95 votes before the absentee ballots….
Washington Couty has 1,100 absentee ballots that will be counted TOMORROW….
via twitter…..
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
UPDATE: Lamb (D) lead down to 95 votes (0.04%), with two Westmoreland Co. precincts outstanding. Still, assuming no tabulation errors, absentees should be enough to keep Lamb ahead by at least a few hundred. #PA18
Lamb pulls ahead in abseetee votes in Allegany county….
Washibgton, Greene and Westmorland County will be counted tomorrow….
847 Lamb is ahead at this time……
3,209 outstanding…..
Saccone needs at least 57% in the above 3 county absentee votes coming out in the morning….
Santourm thinks Saccone needs 63%….
He thinks Lamb will win….
…via twitter….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is just not credible spin. This result is really awful for the GOP. It’s *also* just one data point, so … whatever. But this outcome is tantamount to a Democrat winning (or tying) a statewide race in Louisiana or Kansas or Montana, which also voted for Trump by 20 points.
The number of absentee ballots may NOT be 3,209….
via twitter….
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
It’s also being pointed out to me that CNN was reporting the number of absentee ballots *sent out*, not returned. So that would raise the bar all that much higher for Saccone
Washington Country to count 1,195 tonight….
They will run them thru a machine and THEN hand count them….
John King joins Santourm in hinting that Saccone has to get more than 60+% from Washington County…..
Westmoreland Country will also count their absenetee ballots tonight also now….
Only Greene County will wait until tomorrow right now….
of course….
via twitter….
AP Politics
@AP_Politics
BREAKING: AP is not declaring a winner in Tuesday’s special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district because the race between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone is too close to call.
Saccone is telling his peopel to go home….
He does NOT sound like a winner ….
?????
Briget Bowman
@bridgetbhc
Just got off the phone with elections director of Westmoreland County. She expects totals from 2 outstanding precincts (about 1,000 votes) to be released with absentee total (around 1,800 votes) before midnight tonight #PA18
via twitter….
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
It’s very possible (even likely) that Saccone (R) won the #PA18 Election Day vote. But barring an error, absentees will have put Lamb (D) over the top.
John King again….
Saccone MUST OVER PREFORM with abseetee ballot from his regular votes….
via twitter….
G. Elliott Morris 📈 🤷♂️
@gelliottmorris
How did Lamb pull off a (probable) victory in a Trump +20 seat? Dems turned out at 79% of 2016 votes. GOP just 53%. Data:
Lamb votes as % of Clinton total votes:
78.5%
Saccone votes as % of Trump total:
52.5%
Lamb as % of Obama total:
79.4%
Saccone as % of Romney:
55.8%
via twitter….
Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
Here’s tonight’s bottom line: #PA18 won’t exist 8 months from now, but GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus is likely in for a world of hurt when Conor Lamb runs against him in the newly redrawn #PA17 in Nov. The #PA18 special took place in a Trump+19.5% seat. The new #PA17 is only Trump+2.6%
Margin drops to +579 Lamb (D) with a couple of county’s absentee ballots coming in…..
John King STILL believes that Lamb WILL BE the winner because Saccone needs to over perform from 50% to 63% between regular vote and abseetee vote….
Just so people understand?
Conor Lamb IS a Democrat……
All politics IS local….
You cannot run from the left in Red or Purple places….
Democrats have to be a LOT of things….
It is the thing that Democrats have to understand across the board….
Ok…..
John King now raises the bar to 70% needed by Saccone to move ahead of Lamb fro ALL the absenteee ballot votes……..
Lamb will address his supporters shortly…..
His crowd is noisy and up….
The DCCC and Daily Kos declare Conor Lamb victorious in the Pa-18 election….
700 vote Lamb margin with 98% of precincts reporting about 1400 absentee ballots to be counted, says Anderson Cooper at CNN.
Is the HHR crowd aware that this is a district that Donald J. Trump had by 20% a year and half ago?
No matter what?
This has to give them the creeps….
If not them?
It’s GOT TO worry GOPer’s….
It looks like Conor Lamb just won a 20 plus Trump Congressional District. He was, of course, a great candidate that I am proud to say that we supported with our family’s financial support and by bundling checks from friends in DC and California. I spent the early part of today phone banking for Conor from the Democratic Headquarters here in Sonoma County and our nephew spent the day working the polls for him in Allegheny County. All and all, it was a very good day.
Conor’s district is very red, but there are 118 districts in the country with a more favorable R/D voter split that are currently represented by Republicans. This should send chills up the spine (if he had one) of Paul Ryan. Conor of course will have a more favorable district to run in this coming November and he will do so as an incumbent Member of the House.
Now, of course, the Republican candidate in this district reminded me of an undertaker in a bad suit. He was terrible on the stump and of course said last night that the Democrats hate America, Trump, and God. Nice, real nice. I wonder how many old white Catholic Democrats were offended by that statement. So, very typical, reminds me of when Romney’s campaign chairman said that he, “wished President Obama would act like an American.” Republicans have never been subtle with their dog whistles.
Now, we will be told tomorrow that Conor Lamb’s victory is mostly symbolic. But, that’s bullshit of course. I expect more Republican retirements to begin to mount up in those states where the candidate filing deadlines are still open. After all, who wants to end their career losing.
Welcome back Keith
Reports ARE that Lamb HAS declared victory
Based on the numbers…
The district will be parceled up in Novemded elections
But Lamb i’m Told is a shoo in for the Pa-17th I believe (Saccone may run again it appears)
It SURE IS SYMBOLIC…
This supposed to be a SOLID Red district
That isn’t what the vote says?
This is another race where Donald Trump’s endorsement resulted in a loss…
It will be very close in the morning
But as we saw with Trump
A win is a WIN….
Props to ALL. The hard workers who whipped the support up for Lamb
I suspect you are right Keith
Gonna be a good many GOOer’s heading for private life come next year
Image that Dem’s are contesting EVERY House seat!
This one they didn’t even try running someone before!
As I am sandwiched between two districts more flippable than PA 18 I hope Trump campaigns here for our local Republican House incumbents!
Let’s see if any House Republicans have the balls to stand up to Trump today or will they just retire.
CNN pointed to 20 districts which mirror the Pa. House district….
Those GOPer’s have some thinking to do….
The ‘wave’ contiunes to build….
I predict more Republicans in Congress will suddenly decide they need more time to spend with their families.
Whether their families want that or not.
Don’t want get drowned, eh?
I really hope Trump has rallies in Missouri for Ann Wagner and Illinois for Mike Bost
I’d love to see Democrats take both seats!